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Managing a Nuclear North Korea: Perils, Principles, and Policy Proposals

Managing a Nuclear North Korea: Perils, Principles, and Policy Proposals

상세내역
저자 에반스 리비어
소속 및 직함 브루킹스 연구소
발행기관 사단법인 한국국가전략연구원
학술지 한국국가전략
권호사항 8(2)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 55-81
발행 시기 2023년
키워드 #North Korea   #Nuclear Weapons   #Arms Control   #Alliance Solidarity and Extended Deterrence   #에반스 리비어
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초록
North Korea’s military capabilities and intentions are more transparent than ever. So, too, is the threat posed by Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to the United States and its regional allies. Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) leader Kim Jong Un has clearly described the future trajectory of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile development plans. He has even told us how his regime would use these weapons in a conflict. Hopes for the denuclearization of North Korea have been swept away by the reality of what the North Korean regime has become: a permanently nuclear-armed and dangerous state. Pyongyang’s new nuclear status means the United States must now pivot towards a policy designed to manage over the long-term the DPRK’s nuclear threat. The principles on which such a policy should be based must include a determination never to accept or legitimize a nuclear North Korea. Washington must also provide America’s allies with the strongest possible extended deterrent commitment. The recent U.S.-ROK summit has done much to provide that assurance. In doing so it has laid the foundation for a new and more vigorous policy approach towards Pyongyang. Going forward, Washington must avoid being drawn into the trap of “arms control talks” with Pyongyang, which seeks to undermine the U.S. military commitment to South Korea. Arms control talks would effectively accept a nuclear North Korea, put U.S. forces on the negotiating table, open the door for Pyongyang to demand cuts in U.S. tactical and strategic weapons, and damage ROK (and Japanese) confidence in the U.S. deterrent commitment. Sanctions, diplomacy, military measures, and counter-proliferation actions will be key pillars of a policy designed to contain, deter, and manage a nuclear-armed North Korea. The essence of U.S. policy must be to ensure the DPRK understands that it will never be accepted as a “normal” state as long as it possesses nuclear weapons. The United States should use a broad array of policy tools to make North Korea pay a steep price for its continuing pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. If the U.S. can convince Kim Jong Un that his policies are undermining the very thing he seeks – survival – he may reconsider the choices he has made. Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un must be made to understand that he is sentencing his people to a lifetime of privation and his economy to a hopeless future by pursuing nuclear weapons.
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