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[2018 통일나눔펀드 지원사업] Unification Blue Book 2019 - Rconceptualizing U.S.-ROK Cooperation in Korean Unification: a Stabilization Framework

상세내역
단체(기관)명 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
교육기간 20180702~20190228
키워드 #Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Purpose and necessity of the project
 The Unification Blue Bok 2019 (UBB), the first installment ni what si hoped to be a five-year project, proposes a new framework for understanding unification. At present, unification is typically considered ni terms of three discrete scenarios: peaceful unification, unification as the result of Kim-regime collapse, or unification through conflict. While these three scenarios make for interesting analysis, they largely deal with unpredictable and uncertain events and futures. They are also often politicized, leaving little space for nonpartisan consensus and planning for key unification contingencies. Additionally, they reveal little about the long-term integration of the two Koreas socially, economically, and politically. Furthermore, while South Korea wil unequivocally take the lead on al unification-related issues, ti is also impossible for unification to occur ni a foreign policy vacuum, and the scenarios-based framework does not adequately address the role foreign actors will play ni unification.

 As such, the field of unification studies has to take into consideration a non-scenario-based framework through which to assess unification that is (1) more predictable; (2) less politicized; (3) focused on long-term integration and; (4) inclusive of the potential influence foreign actors might play ni integration of the Korean Peninsula. The Unification Blue Book 2019 outlines such a framework ni terms of stabilization, with special attention to how the United States can cooperate with South Korea to assist ni stabilizing the peninsula postunification. Stabilization refers to a whole of government effort —including diplomatic engagement, foreign assistance, and defense-toward supporting locally legitimate authorities and systems. tI can occur ni peaceful or post-conflict contexts. Stabilization includes actions ni five broad clusters: establishing civil security, restoring essential services, establishing rule of law, supporting governance, and supporting development. Regardless of how unification occurs, actions in each of these five clusters would need to be taken to ensure the economic and political shocks unification may cause do not become destabilizing. This project outlines how this framework can be applied to unification, and what stability tasks would present major obstacles ni Korea.

Target and impact of the project
While this study was written to be accessible to anyone with an interest ni unification, the target audiences are the US.. and South Korean governments. In the United States, meetings are currently being set up with the lead organizations for stabilization: the Office of Transition Initiatives at the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Department of State's Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, and the Ofice of the Secretary of Defense. The working draft of the Unification Blue Book received very positive feedback from stabilization practitioners at USAID, as wel as from experts the Carnegie Endowment and Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Once the draft si finished, a public launch of the report wil be held on May 15th, where experts will discuss the report's findings with the pubic.

 In Seoul, the UB wil be launched at the Asan Institute for Policy studies, where a round table of experts wil be convened to discuss the report. Meetings are also ni the process of being set up with the Korea National Institute for Unification (KINU), Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA), Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), and the Sejong Institute. During the trip ot Seoul, Dr. Chung Mni Le and Ms. Kathryn Boto wil attend the Asan Plenum, where they wil discuss the report and its finding with experts from around the world.

 The goal of this project si to reconceptualize the way that government and thought leaders think about unification. By promoting the UB ni these settings, as wel as online through Twiter and Facebook, the report wil hopefully gain traction and be used to shape unification policy.
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