With the 9th Party Congress set for January 2026, the Kim Jong-un regime faces the task of completing the “Five-Year Plans” for economic and defense development outlined at the 8th Congress. However, the need to concentrate resources in the defense development will lead to the continuation of economic policy that has strengthened control, exacerbating grievances among economic actors and lower units of society. To relieve these difficulties, the Kim regime launched the “People First” projects in 2024, including building consumer goods factories and housing, but their feasibility remains doubtful due to significant resource constraints. In particular, if the strained relations with China persist and trade fails to rebound, it is likely that North Korea continues to face worsening resource shortages and instability of exchange rates and prices in the market. Therefore, it is anticipated that Pyongyang will try to make a breakthrough by seeking external resources through military cooperation with Russia and the restoration of trade with China in 2025. Relatedly, it is necessary to closely monitor the domestic repercussions of troop deployments in North Korea.
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