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IFANS Forecast 2025

상세내역
저자 외교안보연구소
소속 및 직함 외교안보연구소
발행기관 외교안보연구소
학술지 국제정세전망
권호사항 2025(01)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 1-10
발행 시기 2025년
키워드 #IFANS   #Forecast   #2025   #국제정세전망   #외교안보연구소
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상세내역
초록
With the 9th Party Congress set for January 2026, the Kim Jong-un regime faces the task of completing the “Five-Year Plans” for economic and defense development outlined at the 8th Congress. However, the need to concentrate resources in the defense development will lead to the continuation of economic policy that has strengthened control, exacerbating grievances among economic actors and lower units of society. To relieve these difficulties, the Kim regime launched the “People First” projects in 2024, including building consumer goods factories and housing, but their feasibility remains doubtful due to significant resource constraints. In particular, if the strained relations with China persist and trade fails to rebound, it is likely that North Korea continues to face worsening resource shortages and instability of exchange rates and prices in the market. Therefore, it is anticipated that Pyongyang will try to make a breakthrough by seeking external resources through military cooperation with Russia and the restoration of trade with China in 2025. Relatedly, it is necessary to closely monitor the domestic repercussions of troop deployments in North Korea.
목차
Ⅰ. Political Landscape on the Korean Peninsula
1. North Korea’s Internal Landscape
2. Recent Developments in North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program and Inter-Korean Relations

Ⅱ. Political Landscape of Major Powers
1. Major Power Relations in East Asia
2. The U.S.
3. China
4. Japan
5. Russia

Ⅲ. Political Landscape in the World’s Major Regions
1. Southeast Asia
2. South Asia
3. Europe
4. The Middle East
5. Central Asia
6. Africa
7. Latin America and the Caribbean

Ⅳ. Global Issues and Governance
1. International Finance and Monetary Issues
2. International Trade and Economic Security
3. International Law
4. Emerging Security: Cyber, Space, and AI
5. Development Cooperation