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학술논문

An Analysis of Political Instability in the DPRK: Identity, Interest, and Leader-Elite Relations

상세내역
저자 김진아
소속 및 직함 한국국방연구원
발행기관 한국국방연구원
학술지 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis
권호사항 25(1)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 87-107
발행 시기 2025년
키워드 #North Korea   #political stability   #contingency   #constructivism   #leader-elite relations   #김진아
조회수 7
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상세내역
초록
This study explores answers to such questions as “Why has North Korea been so immune to regime change?” and “What are the leading causes of North Korea’s regime fragility?” It acknowledges that indicators of macroeconomic performance,although they are primary indicators of a successful state, are neither available nor reliable for the study of North Korea’s regime stability. Therefore, this study tries to specify factors affecting the leadership rather than looking at a broad matrix of indicators. This study assumes that it becomes increasingly important for the North Korean leadership to provide privileged benefits to rent-seeking elites for the regime maintenance and hence tries to analyze variables related to change of identity and interests of the North Korean power elites. First, it identifies key variables of North Korea’s stability by reclassifying indicators from the indicator clusters examined in the previous studies. Next, it analyzes factors directly related to the leader-follower relationship in North Korea such as ruling ideology, elite composition, rent-seeking behaviors and opportunity cost of choosing alternative options. Findings of this study reveal many paradoxes in North Korea and suggest that North Korean elites’ support for the Kim Jong Un regime depends on the young new leader’s ability to retain the mechanism of providing benefits to the elites and increasing the opportunity cost of elites’ defection.
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