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학술논문

China’s Dilemma on the Korean Peninsula: Not an Alliance but a Security Dilemma

상세내역
저자 남종호, 주재우, 이장원
소속 및 직함 한국외국어대학교
발행기관 한국국방연구원
학술지 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis
권호사항 25(3)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 385-398
발행 시기 2025년
키워드 #Alliance dilemma   #security dilemma   #sinking of Cheonan   #China-North Korea alliance   #South Korea-U.S. alliance   #남종호   #주재우   #이장원
조회수 3
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상세내역
초록
China’s apathetic attitude toward South Korea’s call for international efforts to reveal the truth regarding the sinking of the Korean corvette Cheonan in March 2010 bewildered many observers. Most analyses have attributed it to a problem characteristic of alliance politics; namely, fear of entrapment in a conflict between an ally and its enemies, or the defection of the ally. This article rejects such analysis as the source of China’s attitudes toward North Korea’s provocations for two reasons: The first is that China reckons the cost of entrapment would be greater than any gain—a constraint that has the opposite effect for North Korea. The other is structural, in that neither China nor North Korea can afford to abandon the alliance against the South Korea-U.S. and U.S.-Japan alliances. An abandonment strategy toward alliances is effective only if a state has a strategic option to defend itself on its own or to align with others, and if an ally can defect and/or align with others, including the adversaries of the alliance. The true motivation for China’s attitude can be found in the security dilemma posed by the situation.
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