This paper aims to speculate on Russia’s perceptions and possible countermeasures developed in preparation for a North Korean contingency.
Post-Cold War Russia experienced severe loss ofinfluence over Northeast Asia. In particular, the forfeiture of its alliance link with North Korea and the loss of its strategic interaction with the US at the regional level became definite root causes that made Russia lose its position as a strategic actor in Northeast Asia.
Therefore, the foremost priorities of Russia in Northeast Asia are to overcome “conscious alienation” created by the regional states and to strengthen its position and influence as a regional actor on the basis of its“geographic proximity.” Until recently, Russia had shown a tendency to be one step behind others, taking action after once other nations have first taken the initiative in providing aid to North Korea. However, since 2011 Russia has started to generously provide emergency food relief for North Korea in hopes of confirming the gas pipe project. This can be taken as an example of Russia adopting a more enthusiastic attitude in its Korean peninsula policies. Russia is bound to pursue a more active policy towards Northeast Asia in order to refurbish its passive image and ensure cooperation with regional states for developing its Far East.