Despite the isolation and worsening economic condition in North Korea, the regime under Kim Jong-il survived against all odds in the 1990s and 2000s. However, Kim’s deteriorating health after a stroke in 2008 has raised speculation of impending regime change, if not collapse, in the North. Growing numbers among concerned parties agree with the necessity of preparation for a violent change in North Korea after Kim Jong-il’s demise. The U.S. priorities in North Korean contingency will include 1) security and elimination of North Korea’s WMD capabilities including nuclear program and missile system, 2) stabilizing the crisis inside North Korea, 3) alliance management with South Korea and Japan during and after the contingency, 4) preventing conflicts with China, and 5) supporting a reunification of Korea through free markets and a democratic polity. Such objectives will be pursued in the broader context of addressing humanitarian crisis in North Korea. The breakdown of North Korean regime will not take place overnight. No matter how rapidly the situation unfolds, it will take different stages over certain period of time. And each stage will require different tasks and preparations for the U.S. and its allies. This paper divides and evaluates possible North Korean contingency into three stages: an early stage with beginning of domestic instability, a complete breakdown of political order with no political authority in charge of domestic control, and a post-instability reconstruction stage. This paper scrutinizes the U.S. policies in each stage. In doing so, the US will face major challenges of finding a cause of intervention, achieving effective policy coordination with South Korea, addressing Chinese concerns and dealing with domestic politics.
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