The defining geopolitical feature of 2020 will likely be geopolitical rivalry combined with competition in values, norms, cultures, and identities erupting in various regions around the world. Geopolitics is now no longer simply geographical or political, but sociocultural and even civilizational. The 2020 U.S. presidential election, in particular, is anticipated to affect the unfolding of the strategic U.S.-China rivalry. Faced with the deepening rivalry between Washington and Beijing, countries across the globe will be poised to choose between the two great powers pitted against each other on multiple fronts including trade and technology. On the other hand, the diffusion of power in regional terms accelerated by the power vacuum left by the U.S. will stoke regional power struggle. The rise of nationalism combined with deeply rooted collective identities-such as race, religion, sect, social class, and culture-is expected to speed up the process of political polarization across the world.
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