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학술논문

북한 산림의 시·공간 변화와 황폐화 추동

Spatio-Temporal Changes and Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in North Korea

상세내역
저자 유재심, 김경민
소속 및 직함 국립산림과학원
발행기관 한국환경복원기술학회
학술지 한국환경복원기술학회지
권호사항 18(6)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 73-83
발행 시기 2025년
키워드 #Logistic regression   #Terrace farmland   #Shifting cultivation   #Agroforestry   #Potential restoration area   #유재심   #김경민
조회수 13
원문보기
상세내역
초록
The objective of this study is to establish implications for forest restoration planning in North Korea by analyzing spatio-temporal forest changes and detecting bio-physical factors driving forest degraded. We measured the relationship and spatial distribution between shifting cultivation and sparse forest. We also analyzed between degraded forest land and ecological variables by binary logistic regression to find biophysical drivers of forest degradation and deforestation in North Korea. Between the sparse forest and the shifting cultivation, a positive relationship is found (r=0.91) and scattered discontinuously throughout the country (Moran’s I = -1, Z score = -13.46 (p=0.000)). The sparse forest showed a negative relationship with the warmest month(bio 9), the coldest month(bio10), and the minimum of soil water contents (swc_min), while the shifting cultivation had a negative relationship with the warmest month(bio 9) and the minimum of soil water contents(swc_min). However, the most critical drivers convert forests into sloping farmland were the three months rainfall in summer(bio8) and the yearly mean of soil water contents. Such results reflect the growth period of crops which overlaps with the rainy season in North Korea and the recent land reclamation of uplands where the soil water contents are maintained with a dense forest. When South Korea aids forest restoration projects in North Korea, in consideration of food shortage due to North Korea’s cropland deficiency, terrace farmlands where soil water contents can be maintained should be excluded from the priority restoration area. In addition, an evaluation method for selecting a potential restoration area must be modified and applied based on multiple criteria including altitude and socio-economic factors in the respective regions.
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