<통일·북한 정보 아카이브>
Total  0

통일과나눔 아카이브 8000만

전체메뉴

학술논문

Game Changer: North Korea under the Obama-Lee Partnership and Beyond

상세내역
저자 김태효
소속 및 직함 성균관대학교
발행기관 한국학술연구원
학술지 Korea Observer
권호사항 44(2)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 287-314
발행 시기 2025년
키워드 #North Korea   #Asymmetric Threats   #Northern Limit Line (NLL)   #Proactive Deterrence   #Coercive Diplomacy,Grand Bargain   #Smart Aid   #Kim Jong-un   #Reunification   #김태효
조회수 7
원문보기
상세내역
초록
Existing theories of coercive diplomacy logically pinpoint missing elements in the negotiating process and resulting outcomes concerning North Korean issues. They do not, however, explain why we have failed to obtain the elements crucial for influencing North Korean leaders’ perceptions. This paper claims that a lack of will to actually retaliate against North Korea is responsible for the successive failures to deter North Korea’s repeated limited-aim attacks, not a lack of capability. The author argues that credible intimidation lies at the core of “Proactive Deterrence.” Case studies in this paper also show that inconsistency in policy toward North Korea should be considered an important factor in the failure to coerce North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. Factors of domestic politics and ideological confrontation in South Korean society are also analyzed as part of several popular but flawed arguments concerning inter-Korean relations. In addition,the author assesses the current status and forecasts the future of the North Korean regime, a key factor in the inter-Korean relationship,the ROK-U.S. alliance, and future U.S. Northeast Asia strategy.
목차