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학술논문

남북러 가스관의 경제적 효과에 관한 연구: 한국의 경우

Study of Economic Impact of the SK-NK-Russia Gas Line: Case of South Korea

상세내역
저자 윤성학
소속 및 직함 대외경제정책연구원
발행기관 러시아연구소
학술지 러시아연구
권호사항 22(2)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 259-280
발행 시기 2026년
키워드 #남북러 가스관   #러시아   #천연가스   #북한리스크   #PNG   #셰일가스   #윤성학
조회수 11
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상세내역
초록
This study breaks down the economic feasibility, from South Korea's perspective, of using natural gas from Russia delivered through the SK-NK-Russia gas line. It seeks to find out the price level that would maximize welfare effects for South Korea when it purchases Russian gas, using a model that compares gas price with the price of LNG. The construction of the model means quantifying purchase price, logistics expenses, and passage charges; and assumes diversion of all gas imported for city gas use. Using the model, an import of 7.5 million tons of natural gas from Russia at $400/TCM results in a 22% reduction in heating costs per every gas-using household, while an import price of $300/TCM would lead to a reduction of 31.9%. However, assuming mistakes are made during the negotiation and a subsequent purchase price of $600/TCM, savings per household would be a minuscule 2.3%. Therefore, no meaningful economic benefit can be expected from a purchase arrangement where the 'North Korea risk' is deferred to Russia while South Korea assumes the burden related to price and quantity. The model used shows that the high risk associated with North Korea notwithstanding, gas supplies that lack economic feasibility is simply not worth considering.
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