Four reasons likely explain why President Dmitry Medvedev and other Russian officials have decided to escalate their 65-year old dispute with Japan over the Southern Kurils/ Northern Territories. First, Tokyo’s relations with China, North Korea, and other countries are poor. Furthermore, Russia is eager to raise its profile in East Asia more generally. In addition, the Japanese have become increasingly open to expanding economic ties with Russia despite the dispute. Finally, Medvedev himself has domestic political reasons to adopt a more aggressive posture toward Japan regarding the disputed islands. Neither outcome seems likely to occur in the next few years. In the long term, the Japanese will probably prove more amenable to making the most concessions because China’s continuing rise is presenting a greater threat to Tokyo’s interests. In addition, Russia has succeeded during the past few months in solidifying Moscow’s hold over the islands.
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