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학술논문

북한의 체제변화에 대한 미래예측 연구 : 통일비용 수준을 고려한 Dynamic Modeling 예측기법을 중심으로

A Study on Foresight of North Korea's System Change : Focusing on Dynamic Modeling Foresight Technique

상세내역
저자 이동규, 양기근
소속 및 직함 동아대학교
발행기관 한국정부학회
학술지 한국행정논집
권호사항 23(3)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 1031-1054
발행 시기 2026년
키워드 #Regime Collapse of North Korea   #Unification of South and North Korea   #Foresight   #Unity Expense   #Dynamic Modeling   #이동규   #양기근
조회수 9
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상세내역
초록
This paper draw tasks and policy implications including unity expense through foresight of the reunification as concept hereafter of unification of South and North Korea. Namely, in this study we attempt to system dynamics technique for analysis how will system change of south and north Korea and unity expense effect affect stability of Unification of South and North Korea. In particular, considering a sudden regime collapse time and after that time as the unification time and after that time respectively we approach with a focus on change process of North's system. In order to achieve the purpose of this study we attempt to make set of the causal maps and simulation analysis by Dynamic Modeling since is considered to be important the systematic thinking of system change of north Korea. To obtain an objective and valid study we analyze Vensim PL version of the computer program for approaching Normalized Unit Modelling By Elementary Relationship. Changes be found in system of south and north Korea in the unification time and after that time, that is to say dynamics occurring in limited and complex structure of system of South and North Korea as casual loop feedback structure is explained.
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