At first glance, Northeast Asia seems to be in a state of flux owing to the uncertainties associated with China’s accelerating rise, potential frictions arising from the Sino-U.S. relationship, Japan’s search for strategy, and on-going tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Yet such trends aren’t inevitable because despite outstanding challenges, the conditions for a much more cooperative sub-region—including the formation of a European ion-like community—are stronger owing to a number of convergences. The spreading of universal values, institutions and norms suggests that myopic conceptions of national interests and conflicts reminiscent of the age of imperialism are no longer possible. It is becoming increasingly difficult for countries not to embrace democracy, the rule of law, and human rights. Korea and Japan are advanced economies with thriving democracies and by 2050—the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PRC—it will become increasingly difficult for China not to embrace universal values. Clearly, mistrust still persists not only in terms of perceiving China’s rise and the potential threat it could pose to the regional balance of power. For its part, China continues to support North Korea as a buffer against the United States, South Korea and Japan. Yet such traditional approaches to regional security aren’t likely to persist. By the middle of the 21st century, prospects for some type of a Northeast Asian community is likely based on domestic transitions in China, greater economic integration in the region, and Japan’s adoption of much closer ties with its Asian neighbors. Overcoming historical legacies which have hindered intra-regional cooperation is likely to accelerate. As the trilateral Sino-Japanese-Korean summits have shown, prospects for political, economic, and social cooperation are virtually endless. This is not to suggest that these countries can overcome their differences overnight. But the common goal of maintaining and building a more lasting peace and corresponding notions of global citizenship are much stronger than ever before. The role of the United States in fostering a Northeast Asian community is going to be critical given that it will continue to play a central role in global and regional affairs. Yet over time, Asia’s strategically consequential leaders have to assume greater responsibilities, roles, and missions. Thinking about Northeast Asian futures at a time of acute concern flowing from North Korea’s most recent military attack may seem to be out of place. But the Cheonan incident is a powerful reminder of Northeast Asia’s brittle history and not a roadmap for its future. The courageous decisions our generation takes at this time cannot but lead to a more peaceful and cooperative era on the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia, and indeed, in the broader international community.
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