This article supposes a North Korean contingency resulting from Kim Jong-il’s ill health conditions.Premised on such a hypothesis, it will diagnose the possibility of a contingency in North Korea in case of Kim Jong-il’s absence and seek ways in which we may respond to various international cooperation issues should a contingency take place.
When Kim Jong-il fell ill in August 2008, it appeared more likely that a North Korean contingency would stem from Kim Jong-il’s absence rather than a military coup d’etat, a popular uprising, or a mass exodus of people from North Korea. Kim Jong-il’s absence means the end of governing powers through “monolithic leadership,” which has hitherto been the means of ruling North Korea. If Kim Jong-il dies, or if he is unable to rule the country due to deteriorating health conditions before he establishes an official succession system, it is highly likely that the North Korean ruling system will be immediately paralyzed and the government will degenerate into a state of contingency.
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