North Korea’s advancing nuclear threats continue to command significant attention from South Korean and US policymakers and analysts. North Korea has conducted over
100 missile tests since the start of 2022. In addition, the Commander of US Forces Korea
testified in April 2023 that a seventh North Korean nuclear test was not a matter of “if” but “when.” Pyongyang also issued a new nuclear forces employment law in September 2022, which not only established a first-use doctrine, but also broadened the conditions triggering nuclear use to “
encompass almost all thinkable nuclear, non-nuclear and political crisis situations.” This new policy partly reflects North Korean
concerns about the growing sophistication of South Korea’s missile capabilities, as these gradually improve the credibility of Seoul’s
pre-emptive conventional counterforce strategy against Pyongyang’s nuclear forces and leadership.
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