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War Games: North Korea's Reaction to US and South Korea Military Exercises

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저자 Vito D'Orazio
소속 및 직함 Pennsylvania State University
발행기관 동아시아연구원
학술지 Journal of East Asian Studies
권호사항 12(2)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 275-294
발행 시기 2025년
키워드 #joint military exercise   #conflict   #deterrence   #escalation   #event data   #North Korea   #Vito D'Orazio
조회수 13
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초록
Since 1976, the militaries of the United States and South Korea have been holding routine joint military exercises (JMEs) for the purposes of military training and deterrence against North Korea. These exercises are frequently cited as a cause of tension on the peninsula, causing North Korea to escalate its conflictual rhetoric and behavior. I empirically assess this claim using new data on US-ROK JMEs and machine-coded event data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System. The findings show that North Korea does not systematically escalate its conflictual rhetoric or behavior during or near the occurrence of JMEs. The result s hold for both low-and high-intensity exercises and for rhetoric that has the United States and South Korea as its target.
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