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학술논문

People’s Exit in North Korea: New Threat to Regime Stability?

상세내역
저자 Kyung-Ae Park
소속 및 직함 University of British Columbia
발행기관 국제관계연구소
학술지 Pacific Focus
권호사항 25(2)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 257-275
발행 시기 2026년
키워드 #refugee community   #regime instability   #exile politics   #people’s exit   #critical mass   #women   #Kyung-Ae Park
조회수 2
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상세내역
초록
As suggested in a growing literature that securitizes the phenomenon of refugee migration and analyzes it as a national as well as a regional security issue, the growing number of North Korean border-crossers has far-reaching political implications for both North Korea and the international community. Studies have argued that refugees could contribute significantly to democratic change in their home countries by assisting and actively participating in the struggle of the domestic opposition, even sparking regime instability and eventual regime breakdown. Much of the North Korean refugee research has focused on the human rights issues faced by the refugees, but a largely unexplored area of the refugee research concerns the political consequences of the refugee flight for the current regime in Pyongyang. This paper examines whether North Korean refugees are expected to play the role of political opposition in exile by raising the following four questions: 1) Are the refugees political dissidents? 2) Are they a resourceful critical mass? 3) Does exit always lead to regime instability? 4) Would China and South Korea encourage exile politics against the current North Korean regime? The paper contends that the North Korean refugee community does not currently represent a critical mass that can trigger instability of the Pyongyang regime. Most of the North Korean refugees are not political dissidents, nor have they organized into any resourceful critical mass capable of generating a threat to their home country. In addition, people’s exit does not necessarily destabilize the regime as it can sometimes yield a positive political effect by driving out dissidents’ voice. Furthermore, several of the receiving countries, in particular, China and South Korea, would not encourage exile dissident movements against North Korea for fear of Pyongyang’s collapse. The North Korean regime’s stability does not seem to be threatened by the current refugee situation, although the potential of refugees becoming a critical threat should not be discounted should people’s exit ever reach the point of developing into an uncontrollable mass exodus.
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