통일과나눔 아카이브 8000만

전체메뉴

학술

  • HOME
  • 논문
  • 학술

시스템 사고로 본 북한의 외교안보 딜레마와 향후 북한 비핵화 전망

A System Thinking Perspective on North Korea’s Security Dilemma and the Future Prospects for North Korea’s Denuclearization

상세내역
저자 김규일
소속 및 직함 세종경영자문
발행기관 한국시스템다이내믹스학회
학술지 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
권호사항 19(3)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 5-24
발행 시기 2018년
키워드 #북한   #남북관계   #북미외교   #비핵화   #시스템 사고   #김규일
원문보기
상세내역
초록
The purpose of this study is to present a rational explanation and future prospect of North Korea’s diplomacy over the past 30 years. Through this, it reasonably suggests the way of the denuclearization of North Korea and the dismissal of US sanctions against North Korea for meaningful progress in the on-going negotiations of the two. The factors that determine the future changes such as North Korea’s denuclearization desired by the international society are not the regime’ intention (state level factor), nor the top leader Kim Jung Eun’ decision making (individual level factor). Rather it is North Korea’s response mechanism coming from system constraints (yystem level factor) that determine such changes. North Korea is not an active decision-making body in the Uni-polar world system led by the United States in the post-Cold War era. The US and its allies must recognize it for the progress in the future negotiations on peace settlement on the Korean peninsula.
목차