통일과나눔 아카이브 8000만

전체메뉴

학술

  • HOME
  • 논문
  • 학술

The Beginning of the Korean War and the US Intelligence Failures for Predicting It

The Beginning of the Korean War and the US Intelligence Failures for Predicting It

상세내역
저자 한관수
소속 및 직함 조선대학교
발행기관 한국동북아학회
학술지 한국동북아논총
권호사항 22(2)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 263-283
발행 시기 2017년
키워드 #Early Warning   #Korean War   #Far East Command   #MacArthur   #Kim   #Il-Sung   #Intelligence Estimate   #한관수
원문보기
상세내역
초록
This study aims to analyze the United Nation's intelligence failure to predict the invasion of South Korea by the North Korean army at the beginning of the Korean War. The study will analyze the intelligence failures by reviewing US intelligence activities and estimates from 1949, when Kim Il-Sung planned the invasion of South Korea to June 25, 1950, when the attacks began. The Korean War was the first and the largest military conflict during the Cold War, and the most horrible. Even though the US's intelligence agencies such as CIA, the Far East Command (FEC), and the Embassy in Seoul provided some information on the movement of North Korean forces, no early warnings of a North Korean invasion made it to Truman before the Korean War, which resulted in an intelligence failure. This study argues the reasons for the US's intelligence failures were; cognitive failure in underestimating the strategic value of the Korean peninsula, setting a lower priority for the Korean peninsulas compared to the Soviet Union and Taiwan in intelligence collecting. In addition, judgment failures resulted from strategic deceptions and subterfuge by the Soviet Union and the North Korean army, and the consequence of alert fatigue from the “cry wolf effect” of the South Korean government.
목차