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시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 남북한 항공수요 예측에 관한 연구

A Study on Forecasting of Inter-Korea Air Passenger Demand Using System Dynamics

상세내역
저자 최지헌, 원동욱, 김규왕
소속 및 직함 한서대학교 항공운항관리학과
발행기관 한국항공운항학회
학술지 한국항공운항학회지
권호사항 30(4)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 65-75
발행 시기 2022년
키워드 #남북한   #시스템 다이내믹스   #인과지도   #저량 ․ 유량 흐름도   #항공협력   #최지헌   #원동욱   #김규왕
원문보기
상세내역
초록
This study aims to forecast of Air Passenger Demand between South Korea and North Korea using the system dynamics analysis methodology that is based on the system thinking. System dynamics is not only a tool that makes the systematic thought to a model but also a computer program-based analysis methodology that mathematically models the system varying according to time variation. This study analyzed the causal relationship based on the interrelation among variables and structured them by considering various variables that affect aviation cooperation from the perspective of Air passenger demand forecasting. In addition, based on the causal relationship between variables, this study also completed the causal loop diagram that forms a feedback loop, constructed the stock-flow diagram of Inter-Korean model using Vensim program. In this study, Air passenger demand was using by the simulation variable value into System Dynamics. This study was difficult to reflect the various variables constituting the North Korea environment, and there is a limit to the occurrence of events in North Korea.
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