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A Most Difficult Year: Will North Korea Survive Its Current Travails?

A Most Difficult Year: Will North Korea Survive Its Current Travails?

상세내역
저자 에반스 리비어
소속 및 직함 부르킹스 연구소
발행기관 사단법인 한국국가전략연구원
학술지 한국국가전략
권호사항 6(1)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 121-141
발행 시기 2021년
키워드 #North Korea   #Denuclearization   #Kim Jong Un   #Economic Crisis   #and The United States   #에반스 리비어
원문보기
상세내역
초록
North Korea is in trouble. The COVID-19 pandemic, self-imposed isolation and lockdowns, crop failures, sanctions, and other factors have put the economy in a parlous state, a fact acknowledged by Kim Jong Un himself. The state planning mechanism seems broken, foreign exchange holdings are down, state revenue is shrinking, foreign trade numbers have collapsed, and growth is declining. The measures taken thus far by the regime to deal with the crisis seem unlikely to turn things around. Indeed, they may make matters worse, especially if Pyongyang follows through on plans to divert scarce resources to expand its nuclear weapons and missile programs. Despite its difficulties, don’t count Pyongyang out. For decades, the North Korean regime has demonstrated remarkable determination, diplomatic dexterity, and uncanny survival skills. And the DPRK has the support of China, which is prepared to live with Pyongyang’s nuclear status and committed to keeping the regime on “life support.” North Korea is down, but hardly out. In the midst of this economic crisis, Kim Jong Un is gambling that by expanding his nuclear and missile arsenals, he can convince the United States to forego denuclearization negotiations and instead engage in “arms control talks” that would tacitly accept the DPRK as a nuclear power and give Pyongyang the sanctions relief it needs. Despite Kim’s bold move, North Korea’s economic crisis represents a vulnerability. There is an opportunity to apply overwhelming pressure on the regime across a broad front and convince Kim Jong Un that his pursuit of nuclear weapons could end his regime. Previous efforts to do this were half-hearted and failed to change Kim’s calculus. The current crisis may be the last opportunity to do so. Today, prospects for North Korea’s denuclearization are all but gone. But that goal may still be achievable if the United States, its allies, and partners recognize that Kim Jong Un and his regime are standing on shaky ground, and that now is the time to convince Kim that the trembling he feels is a sign that the regime’s days could be numbered.
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