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김정은 시대 북한의 ‘핵 강압외교’에 관한 연구

A Study on North Korea's ‘Nuclear Coercive Diplomacy’ during the Kim Jong Un Period.

상세내역
저자 정방호
학위 박사
소속학교 동국대학교 일반대학원
전공 북한학과 대외관계전공
발행연도 2022년
쪽수 250
지도교수 김용현
키워드 #정방호   #deterrence and coercion   #nuclear coercive diplomacy   #US policy toward North Korea   #North Korea's internal dynamics   #North Korea's national strategy   #and nuclear policy
원문보기
상세내역
초록
To examine the reasons for the strengthening of nuclear coercive diplomacy during the Kim Jong-un period, this paper analyzed the causes by applying coercive diplomacy theory and the second image reversed theory by dividing the characteristics of nuclear coercive diplomacy by period into diplomatic form, internal dynamics, and nuclear policy goals. As a result, it was confirmed that nuclear coercive diplomacy was strengthened by the U.S. policy toward North Korea, internal crisis response measures, and national strategies. The characteristics of nuclear coercive diplomacy by period are as follows. First, nuclear coercive diplomacy of the development period of nuclear force was the "rest" of nuclear negotiations with the U.S. and North Korea attempted nuclear negotiations with the U.S. after the February 29 agreement, but failed to meet the changes in behavior demanded by the U.S. Second, Kim Jong-un attempted nuclear coercive diplomacy to promote the legitimacy and system binding of the succession system during the power succession period and the reign of power. Third, the goal of nuclear coercive diplomacy pursued 'limited internal balance'. Even after the February 29 agreement was broken, North Korea attempted to communicate and negotiate with the United States, but the United States rejected it, and during this period, North Korea focused on strengthening its defense capabilities rather than improving its relations with the United States. Finally, as a time when legal and institutional devices were in place, economic and nuclear routes were declared and laws and regulations of nuclear countries were enacted. First, nuclear coercive diplomacy was implemented in response to internal crises. Through the 4th nuclear test, the 7th Party Conference, and the 5th and 6th nuclear tests, their nuclear capabilities were strengthened to show off their achievements and strengthen their system solidarity. Second, the 'Strong to Strong' diplomatic relations with the United States were promoted. It has advanced its nuclear power by confronting U.S.-led sanctions against North Korea with nuclear and missile tests. Third, 'total internal balance' was pursued. It completed nuclear power by upgrading its nuclear power, including three nuclear tests, missile tests such as ICBM and SLBM, and solid rocket engine tests. Finally, the pre-nuclear posterior policy was promoted. After declaring the economic and nuclear progression routes as permanent routes at the 7th Party Conference, the government first strengthened its nuclear power and promoted economic development. The characteristic of nuclear coercive diplomacy during the denuclearization explorer was, first, attempting to restore the people's economy. In order to restore the North Korean economy, which has been devastated by sanctions, it adopted an economic-focused route and began denuclearization negotiations. Second, it turned to emulsification policy. Despite North Korea's strengthening of its nuclear capabilities, security threats from the United States increased, and for North Korea, dialogue and negotiations with the United States were urgent. Third, the agenda was changed according to the security situation. During the U.S.-North Korea summit, North Korea demanded security from the U.S. and then demanded economic support. Finally, public relations improved. Kim Jong-un's four visits to China during the North Korea-U.S. denuclearization summit have restored North Korea-China relations in a friendly manner. As we have seen so far, it can be seen that the U.S. policy toward North Korea and North Korea's internal situation are key factors in North Korea's nuclear coercive diplomacy during the Kim Jong-un period. It can be said that the cooperative system with the United States is of paramount importance when resolving inter-Korean relations or in Korea-U.S. relations. If North Korea feels pressure on the U.S. policy toward North Korea, it rather strengthened its nuclear power, and if it agrees or satisfies the U.S. policy toward North Korea, it stopped strengthening its nuclear power and pursued dialogue and negotiations. In addition, nuclear power was strengthened by North Korea's internal dynamics. Kim Jong-un conducted nuclear coercive diplomacy to overcome skepticism about the leadership of worsening economic conditions due to system solidarity and sanctions. As of October 1, 2021, North Korea has launched or tested cruise missiles, new tactical guided missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and new anti-aircraft missiles seven times this year. It is developing a regional weapon system that threatens allies and demonstrates low-intensity force externally while firing various missiles. Considering these points, it can be said that North Korea still hopes for the U.S. expedition pursued in the denuclearization exploration period.
목차
"제1장 서 론 1
제1절 문제제기 및 연구목적 1
제2절 연구 범위와 방법 5
1. 연구 범위 5
2. 연구 방법 및 구성 9
제3절 선행연구 검토 12
1. 북한의 대미 강압외교에 관한 연구 12
2. 북한의 역강압 외교와 강압외교 효과에 관한 연구 16
3. 북한의 핵능력 고도화와 핵정책의 변화에 관한 연구 21
4. 소결 24
제2장 이론적 배경 27
제1절 이론적 검토 28
1. 강압외교 이론 28
2. 제2이미지 역전이론 32
제2절 북한 핵 강압외교의 역사적 배경 37
1. 탈냉전 이후 대외관계의 변화 37
1) 1990년대 북한의 외교 활로 모색 37
2) 북미 관계의 특징 39
2. 김일성 시기: 제1차 북핵위기와 '핵의 유용성' 인식 41
1) 제한된 핵 강압외교 배경 41
2) 제한된 핵 강압외교 전개 과정 및 특징 44
3. 김정일 시기: 제2차 북핵위기와 '점진적 압박'전략 48
1) 제한된 핵 강압외교 배경 48
2) 제한된 핵 강압외교 전개 과정 및 특징 52
제3절 분석틀 55
제3장 핵무력 발전기(20092015) 확장된 핵 강압외교 59
제1절 확장된 핵 강압외교 배경 60
1. 대외적 배경 60
1) 오바마 행정부 대북정책과 북한의 대미인식 60
2) 북중 관계 악화 69
2. 대내적 배경 71
1) '권력 승계기' 체제결속 도모 71
2) 집권기 정권안정 정착 73
제2절 확장된 핵 강압외교 전개 과정 75
1. 229 합의 파기 76
1) 북미 고위급 회담 76
2) 229 합의 성과 및 문제점 78
3) 229 합의 파기 이후 북한의 긴장유발 79
2. 제3차 핵실험 전개 80
1) 북한의 전면대결전 선언 및 제3차 핵실험 80
2) 북미 양국 핵무기 사용위협 83
3) 북한의 대화와 평화공세 87
제3절 확장된 핵 강압외교 특징 90
1. 국내정치적 필요에 의한 핵능력 강화 90
2. 대미 핵협상 휴지기(休止期) 92
3. 국방력 강화 추구 94
4. 법적제도적 장치 구비 97
제4장 핵무력 완성기(20162017) 공세적 핵 강압외교 101
제1절 공세적 핵 강압외교 배경 101
1. 대외적 배경 101
1) 오바마트럼프 행정부 대북정책과 북한의 대미인식 101
2) 중국의 대북제재 동참 110
2. 대내적 배경 113
1) 7차 당대회를 통한 성과 과시 113
2) 제5차 핵실험과 체제결속 강화 116
제2절 공세적 핵 강압외교 전개 과정 118
1. 제45차 핵실험 전개 118
1) 제4차 증폭핵분열탄 핵실험 전개 118
2) 제5차 증폭핵분열탄 핵실험 전개 120
2. 제6차 수소탄 핵실험 및 화성-15형 ICBM 발사 121
1) 제6차 수소탄 핵실험 전개 121
2) 중장거리 탄도미사일 시험발사 125
제3절 공세적 핵 강압외교 특징 131
1. 대내 위기대응 차원 핵무력 강화 131
2. 강대강 대미외교 추진 133
3. 핵무력 완성과 미사일 강국 위업 실현 136
4. 선핵후경(先核後經) 정책추진 138
제5장 비핵화 탐색기(20182019) 유화적 핵 강압외교 141
제1절 유화적 핵 강압외교 배경 141
1. 대외적 배경 142
1) 트럼프 행정부 중기 대북정책과 북한의 대미인식 142
2) 북중 정상회담 147
2. 대내적 배경 151
1) 경제건설 집중노선 추구 151
2) 평화환경 조성 154
제2절 비핵화 탐색 전개 과정 156
1. 제1차 정상회담과 '종전선언' 요구 156
2. '새로운 길 모색' 압박과 제2차 정상회담 159
제3절 유화적 핵 강압외교 특징 163
1. 인민경제 복원 시도 163
2. 유화정책 선회 166
3. 안보 상황에 따라 의제 전환 167
4. 대중 관계개선 169
제6장 시기별 핵 강압외교 평가 및 특징의 원인 분석 172
제1절 핵 강압외교 공통점 172
1. 대내 상황에 의한 핵정책 시행 172
2. 핵능력 향상 후 협상력 제고 174
3. 북중 관계개선 노력 176
제2절 핵 강압외교 차이점 179
1. 핵능력 발전에 따른 억지력 차이 179
2. 비핵화 탐색기 '강제' 요구 181
3. 대내 위기관리 차원 대응 182
제3절 핵 강압외교 특징의 원인 분석 187
1. 시기별 특징의 원인 분석 187
2. 관련 이론에 의한 분석 204
3. 종합평가 211
제7장 결 론 214
참고문헌 219
ABSTRACT 243"