통일과나눔 아카이브 8000만

전체메뉴

학위

  • HOME
  • 논문
  • 학위

남북합의 지속성 저해요인 연구

Study on factors that hinder continuity of NorthSouth consolidation

상세내역
저자 김신정
학위 박사
소속학교 동국대학교
전공 북한학과
발행연도 2017년
쪽수 316 p
지도교수 김용현
키워드 #김신정   #포스트분단   #남북합의   #분단반대   #한반도 정상화
원문보기
상세내역
초록
Nowadays, the terminology, ‘golden time’ is being used very frequently within our society Even with regards to our unification environment, golden time, such as ‘July 4th NorthSouth Joint Statement (hereinafter referred to as July 4th Joint Statement)’, ‘InterKorean Basic Agreement (hereinafter referred to as Basic Agreement)’, ‘June 15th NorthSouth Joint Statement (hereinafter referred to as June 15th Joint Statement)’, ‘October 4th NorthSouth Joint Summit Declaration (hereinafter referred to as October 4th Declaration)’ and others that could definitely have overcome the division of the Korean Peninsula and prepared an institutional framework of peace structure and peaceful unification, existed However, despite the fact that there were 4 opportunities, every important chance was lost and due to multiplicative factors such as the American variable, domestic variable in North and South Korea and the like, the current interKorean relations is standing at a crossroads
The presentday division of North and South is the fundamental and structural cause hindering the development of InterKorean relations The structure of division is creating negative aspects interrupting the implementation of agreement of North and South such as causing longterm conflicts, failure in building military confidence, cultural heterogeneity and others Along with it, North and South have repeatedly faced conflicts and confrontation in pursuing interests due to reinforcement of each government regime’s power and replacement of government regime, ideological confrontation and identity, conflicting mutually common interests such as security and economic interests and so on, therefore, it was difficult to create a practical reconciliation and cooperative phase On the other hand, international environment changes and the US factor have become the driving force for hosting InterKorean dialogues but also acted as a crucial factor making it difficult for InterKorean relations to progress after the agreement of north and south In particular, the KoreaUS conflict following the change of US administration as well as the shift in North Korean Policy struck an offbeat in the KoreaUS’s stance against North Korea which did not contribute to the improvement of InterKorean relations through mutual cooperation In the event of North Korea, hostile relationship with US threatening the regime continued, unfolding a situation in which emphasis was placed on North KoreaUS dialogues and improvement of relationship rather than with South Korea In other words, instead of looking for the centric ring of survival from the improvement of relationship with US after the collapse of communist nations, North Korea rejected dialogues with South Korea, ultimately aborting South Korea’s consistent attempts for dialogue
In this context, the purpose of this study is to identify the causes that obstructed the substantive implementation between North and South after the agreement by examining the 4 InterKorean agreements such as ‘July 4th Joint Statement’, ‘Basic Agreement’, ‘June 15th Joint Statement’ and ‘October 4th Declaration’ Furthermore, through it, it aims to investigate the factors that hinder the development of NorthSouth relations while analyzing the hindrance factor covering the entire NorthSouth agreements through mechanism analysis between factors that obstructed the actual implementations between North and South after the adoption of the agreement In other words, considerations on, despite the fact that the North and South Korean government acknowledged the need for agreement, what was the reason that made it difficult to implement and fulfill the agreement? What caused the conflict and confrontation after the InterKorean agreement? and the like Based on the analysis result identified here, it aims to identify continuous practical plan and the development of InterKorean relations in order to implement the agreement by proposing the implications on InterKorean dialogue to be implemented in the future

July 4th Joint Statement has an extremely big historical significance as it was an official document agreed upon by high ranking authorities from North and South Korea through the first ever dialogue since the division amidst the international wave of detente Nevertheless, the upsurge of internal and external consciousness of crisis respectively in North and South Korea at the time obstructed the implementation of the contents in the July 4th Joint Statement
After the announcement of July 4th Joint Statement, NorthSouth Coordinating Committee was hosted to implement the agreed details but under the ‘Pursuit for mutual military security interests’ and ‘ideological confrontation’ structure, it was no longer possible to maintain a reconciliation atmosphere In other words, North Korea demanded the South to accept the prerequisites of reducing the army, withdrawal of US forces, guarantee legitimate activities of communists, abolition of National Security Act in return for continued talks between North and South after South Korea’s declaration of Revitalizing Reforms system Meanwhile, a series of incidents infringing the North Korean military security interests occurred even in South Korea That is, a decision was made to conduct KoreaUS Joint Military Exercise, ‘Team Spirit’ and ‘modernization of the ROK Army’ commenced by receiving economic support from US to fill up the security gap arising from the withdrawal of US Forces As such, South Korea took measures to reinforce the nation’s military strength or to weaken the military security interests of the other party as part of the initiative to overcome the military security crisis At the same time, North and South respectively enacted Revitalizing Reforms Constitution and Socialist Constitution, reinforcing hostile ideology and along with the lack of intention in the powered subjects, the drive for maintaining NorthSouth talks couldn’t be created

‘InterKorean Basic Agreement’ which was adopted amidst the transition of international situation in PostCold War era is extremely significant as it proposed the grounds for peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsular and the development of InterKorean relations However, the outbreak of the 1st Nuclear Crisis soon after was a decisive act that ditched the 3year effort that was put in for the adoption of the InterKorean Basic Agreement
The hindrance factor of implementation of InterKorean Basic Agreement are as below First, as for the North Korean factors, North Korea externally attempted to reduce the South Korean threat by adopting ‘Nonaggression agreement’ between the North and South and internally, North Korea tried to lay a stable framework of Kim Jung Il succession regime by minimizing unrest and confusion in North Korean citizens arising from the collapse of communist names and by asserting ‘Our type of socialism’ However, this was an act that greatly threatened the security of South Korea
In case of South Korea, with the Kim Young Sam administration in 1993, efforts were made to expand the unification atmosphere by announcing ‘Korean National Community Unification Formula’ but North Korea’s nuclear crisis and withdrawal from NPT augmented the security of South Korea Kim Young Sam government resumed the Team Spirit training to resolve the security instability while actively participating in the adoption of IAEA and UN Security Council’s North Korean Resolution, threatening the North Korean regime Such measures gravely infringed the military security interests of North Korea
On the other hand, this period is when the US factor intervened in the NorthSouth relations on a fullscale and the newly inaugurated Clinton administration started taking an active approach such as directly negotiating with North Korea under the objective of denuclearizing North Korea And eventually, US succeeded in entering into USNorth Korean Agreed Framework without South Korea However, South Korea felt insecurity and alienation amidst the progress of USNorth Korean relations and consequently, was concerned that North Korea would no longer feel the need for NorthSouth talks On the other hand, North Korea intended to overcome the regime crisis through talks with US
As such, with the subject of talks with North Korea gradually becoming the US instead of South Korea after the NorthSouth Basic Agreement, NorthSouth Talks began to lose its driving force and the interaction of internal and external factors in North and South Korea prevented the implementation of NorthSouth Basic Agreement

The North and South hosted the InterKorean Ministerial Summit in order to fulfill the clauses as well as North and South Korean exchanges and cooperation in accordance with ‘June 15th Joint Statement However, crucial incidents that prevented the execution of June 15th Joint Statement agreement occurred The 2nd nuclear crisis in 2002 and the outbreak of the 2nd West Sea Armed Conflict suspended the NorthSouth talks that have been taking place so far and acted as an obstacle in the progress of interKorean relations In particular, after the inauguration of the Bush administration and the 9·11 terror, North Korea was designated as a state sponsor of terrorism so the deterioration of USNorth Korea relations that have unfolded caused a rapid stagnation in interKorean relations As such, the armed provocation of North Korea and the South Korean government’s response following it as well as America’s hostile North Korean policy as an expression of dissatisfaction repeatedly caused a halt and absence in talks with North Korea Furthermore, America’s strong policy on North Korea exhibited a clear difference from the South Korean government which supported the engagement policy towards North Korea, causing friction between Korea and US from the perspective of cooperation on North Korea
However, even within the society of South Korea, the awareness of security threat was heightened due to North Korea’s continuous provocations and this triggered conflicts between the progressive force and the conservative force, unfolding a situation that made it difficult to execute a more active engagement policy towards North Korea
The interaction of series of such incidents stopped the following NorthSouth dialogues after the June 15th Joint Statement despite agreements made between North and South Korea, preventing the practical execution of the agreed details

The second summit meeting between the North and South was hosted in Pyeongyang in October 2007 Despite so, North Korea's second nuclear test and armed provocation, appearance of conservative government within South Korea, failure of KoreaUS mutual assistance and others that unfolded after the agreement led to mistrust, increase in mutual security instability, ostentation and expectation on superiority of the regime which ultimately became the main cause for not being able to maintain the agreement contents of October 4th Declaration
When the conservative government came to power in South Korea, it was followed by changes in North Korea policy Lee Myung Bak government set the ‘Vision 3000 through denuclearization and openness' as the key stance of North Korea policy With regards to such, North Korea resisted by claiming it to be a 'product of confrontation attempt', continuing the uncomfortable relationship Meanwhile, North Korea provided the ground for strain in interKorean relations with second nuclear test, sinking of Cheonan navy ship, North Korean attack on Yeonpyeong Island, Mt Geumgang Tourist Shooting Incident and others This series of incidents severely threatened the South Korean security and by creating conflicts in South Korean society, the interKorean relations couldn't be improved
On the other hand, North Korea deems America's hostile North Korea policy and UN's sanctions against North Korea as acts that threaten North Korea's regime while infringing the military security interests and economic interests Meanwhile, North Korea's nuclear development and armed provocation were acts that severely infringed the military security interests of South Korea As such, the conflict of military security interests between the North and South is becoming the main cause for interrupting the implementation of agreement between the North and South In addition, the absence of consistency in North Korea policy due to the changes of government in South Korea and US is making the implementation of agreement more difficult

In summary, similarities and differences can be identified in the factors that impeded the continuity after the NorthSouth agreement First of all, the similarities are as below
First, 'mutual security threat' that has accumulated and is embedded in one past war and countless number of military collision can be named 'Security' which is the core interest of a country cannot become a subject of compromise and concession under the structure of division and longterm interKorean conflicts Due to such, every time a situation that threatens the security of the other party breaks out, the agreement between the North and South couldn't be upheld and this become the decisive factor in preventing the development of interKorean relations
Second, changes in the international environment surrounding North and South Korea is an important factor that determines the interKorean relations and America's South Korea and North Korea policy acts as an important index and variable in interKorean relations
Due to KoreaUS conflict and North KoreaUS conflict that unfolded after the respective agreements didn't have a positive impact on the interKorean relations That is, due to the conflict with US, North Korea began to focus on negotiations with US without South Korea and South Korea had no choice but to follow America's security logic under the KoreaUS alliance Despite so, during Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun government, South Korea took the initiative in leading talks with North Korea, taking the risk of friction with US but the future actions were subject to significant restrictions
Next, as for the difference in factors that hindered the continuity after the NorthSouth agreement, first, there was the domestic political restriction and the change of ideological identity
The interKorea talks and agreements are fundamentally a problem between the North and South So far, the willpower of South Korea and the intention of North Korea acted as an important determinant in policy making, negotiation and implementation processes and others That is, depending on whether the domestic political structure was agreementoriented or confrontationoriented affected the autonomy of North Korea policy and this consequently had a direct impact on interKorean relations Furthermore, the excessive contradiction in ideological identity that formed after the division was the cause of preventing agreement between the North and South This applies to July 4th Joint Statement and the interKorean Basic Agreement and in the 2 summit meetings, it was relatively alleviated or it hardly existed
As such, the conflict within the South Korean society became the cause that prevented the implementation of agreement between the North and South such as the October 4th Declaration and the ideological identity between the North and South acted as a structural factor that prevented the implementation of contents that were agreed through July 4th Joint Statement and interKorean Basic Agreement which were agreements made during the Cold War and the initial stage of postCold War
Second, there were differences in the hindrance factors depending on the difference in South Korean policymaker's perception and policy toward North Korea The political subject of North and South maintained the framework of 'hostile interdependent relationship' dating back to the Cold War that requires the existence of the other party in order to reinforce one's power while being hostile On the other hand, Kim Dae JungRoh Moo Hyun government's flexible principle of reciprocity brought about great progress in interKorean Talks and improvement in relations by cooperatively encouraging interaction However, Lee Myung Back government and rigid principle of reciprocity constricted the interKorean relations and resulted in recreating the hostile relationship

In this study, a few regularities and restrictions can be identified as below when the correlation between the factors that prevented the implementation of the agreement and the discontinued interKorean talks in representative cases are examined First of all, the regularities are as below
First, it is the fact that North and South were not able to uphold the agreement due to external factor after the agreement, that is, conflict with US In the event of KoreaUS conflict, a subtle distinction in the perception and approach method with regards to North Korean issues during the KoreaUS summit meeting led to dissonance between Korea and US and this caused South Korea's engagement policy towards North Korea to lose its driving force In case of North Korea, the continued hostile relations between North Korea and US created after the first nuclear crisis made North Korea focus on North KoreaUS talks to sustain its regime This caused the talks with South Korea to be excluded from the priority which ultimately resulted in giving undue value on exchanges and cooperations only in the economic field
Second, it is the fact that when North and South pursued mutual military security interest, the interKorean relations became strained and followup talks for the implementation of the agreement were halted The pursuit for military security interest between the North and Korean which continued from the Cold War, reversely led to the continuous infringement of mutual military security interest, acting as an important factor in suspending interKorean talks and straining interKorean relations This signifies that implementing agreement without the prerequisite of building military trust between North and South is impossible that implies that it would also act as an important factor in future talks
Third, it is worth noticing that when internal factors in North and South and the external factor of US take effect simultaneously, it interrupted the implementation of interKorean agreement and its power of influence was significant in interKorean relations In other words, from the perspective of hindrance factor, although a key driver capable of maintaining continuity to a certain extent existed through agreement between two parties under the NorthSouth, KoreaUS and North KoreaUS relations, when a triangular structure of NorthSouthUS was formed, the harmony between variables became relatively difficult, resulting in a drop in possibility of resolving problems
Until now, the operation mechanism of factors that hindered the continuity of interKorean agreement was examined by analyzing 4 types of main agreements between the North and South Through this, regularities, such as conflict with US after the interKorean agreement, pursuit of mutual military security interest between North and South, drop in the possibility of implementing the agreement when a triangular structure of NorthSouthUS is formed, were identified Next, restrictions in the implementation of NorthSouth consolidation can be examined through division structure and legal restrictions interKorean agreement The pursuit of security interest stemming from the division structure and the ideological conflict are causing endemic confrontation status of the
목차
"제1장 서론 1
제1절 연구 목적 1
제2절 선행연구 검토 7
1 남북합의 관련 선행연구 7
2 선행연구에 대한 비판적 검토 11
제3절 연구 방법 및 내용 15
1 연구 방법 15
2 연구 범위와 내용 17

제2장 이론적 배경 23
제1절 장기갈등 이론 23
1 장기갈등의 개념 23
2 남북한 장기갈등과 특징 26
제2절 동서독 기본조약의 지속요인 29
1 통일정책의 지속성 유지 29
2 통일외교의 성공 31
3 상호 군사적 신뢰구축 문제 33
제3절 분석틀 36

제3장 1972년 74 남북공동성명 41
제1절 74 남북공동성명 합의 전개과정 41
1 합의 배경 41
1) 북한 대내적 요인: 안보 불안감의 증대와 경제난 타개 42
2) 남한 대내적 요인: 국내정치 환경 변화와 안보불안 해소 44
3) 대외적 요인: 데탕트와 미중 관계의 개선 46
2 합의 과정 48
3 합의 성과 및 의의 51
제2절 합의 이후 남북관계의 변화와 주요 특징 54
1 남북적십자회담의 중단과 재개 54
2 남북조절위원회 회의 개최와 중단 56
제3절 합의 이행 저해요인 61
1 북한 요인 61
1) 대화 재개를 위한 전제조건 수용 요구와 권력 강화 61
2) 대남혁명 전술의 전개 63
2 남한 요인: 군사안보 이익의 추구와 권력 강화 65
3 대외적 요인 68
1) 미국의 대한 정책 변화 69
2) 한미 간 대북위협 인식의 차이와 갈등 73
제4절 소결 76

제4장 1992년 남북기본합의서 79
제1절 남북기본합의서 합의 전개과정 79
1 합의 배경 79
1) 북한 대내적 요인: 외교적 고립과 경제위기 상황의 극복 79
2) 남한 대내적 요인: 노태우 정권의 북방정책 추진과 정통성 극복 81
3) 대외적 요인: 탈냉전과 한반도 주변 외교환경의 변화 84
2 합의 과정 86
1) 제1단계: 탐색 단계(1~3차) 86
2) 제2단계: 기본합의 도출 단계(4차~6차) 90
3) 제3단계: 부속합의서 협상 단계(7차~8차) 91
3 합의 성과 및 의의 92
제2절 합의 이후 남북관계의 변화와 주요 특징 95
1 북한의 NPT 탈퇴와 남한의 북핵문제 해결 노력 95
2 김대중 정부의 햇볕정책과 북한의 무력도발 98
1) 김대중 정부의 햇볕정책 98
2) 북한의 무력도발 101
제3절 합의 이행 저해요인 105
1 북한 요인: 체제 위협에 대한 공포 106
2 남한 요인: 안보 불안감 증대와 체제우월성 과시 109
3 대외적 요인: 북미 핵협상 타결과 한미 갈등 113
제4절 소결 117

제5장 2000년 615 남북공동선언 120
제1절 615 남북공동선언 합의 전개과정 121
1 합의 배경 121
1) 북한 대내적 요인: 경제 위기의 지속 121
2) 남한 대내적 요인: 김대중 정부의 햇볕정책과 정치경제적 위기 124
3) 대외적 요인: 클린턴 행정부의 대북개입 정책 127
2 합의 과정 129
3 합의 성과 및 의의 132
제2절 합의 이후 남북관계의 변화와 주요 특징 136
1 남북장관급회담의 중단 위기 137
2 2차 북핵 위기와 북한의 무력도발 140
3 북한의 1차 핵실험과 남북관계 경색 143
제3절 합의 이행 저해요인 147
1 북한 요인: 2차 북핵 위기 조성과 체제 위협 147
2 남한 요인: 남한 내 햇볕정책을 둘러싼 갈등 150
3 대외적 요인 153
1) 부시 행정부의 출범과 대북 적대정책 153
2) 한미 정상회담 이후 양측의 갈등 155
제4절 소결 160

제6장 2007년 104 남북정상선언 163
제1절 104 남북정상선언 합의 전개과정 163
1 합의 배경 163
1) 북한 대내적 요인: 대외관계 개선 목적 164
2) 남한 대내적 요인: 노무현 대통령의 의지와 대외적 여건 조성 165
3) 대외적 요인: 부시 행정부의 실용주의 외교노선 168
2 합의 과정 171
3 합의 성과 및 의의 174
제2절 합의 이후 남북관계의 변화와 주요 특징 178
1 남한 내 보수정권의 집권과 대북정책의 변화 178
2 북한의 2차 핵실험과 체제 불안 180
3 천안함 침몰 사건과 연평도 포격 사건 183
제3절 합의 이행 저해요인 187
1 북한 요인: 북한의 무력도발과 안보 위협 187
2 남한 요인: 대북정책 변화와 남북대화의 추진동력 상실 190
3 대외적 요인: 한미 공조의 마찰과 중국의 대북관계 복원 193
제4절 소결 198

제7장 남북합의 지속성 저해요인 비교 201
제1절 남북합의 저해요인 간 유사점 201
1 남북 군사적 대결 상황과 상호 안보위협 201
2 미국의 대 한반도 정책 210
1) 한미 갈등 211
2) 북미 갈등 218
제2절 남북합의 저해요인 간 차이점 224
1 국내정치적 제약 상황과 이데올로기적 정체성 224
2 남한 정책결정자의 대북인식 및 정책의 차이 228
제3절 소결: 종합 평가 및 분석 233
1 남북합의 미 이행의 규칙성 233
2 분단 구조와 남북합의 법적 한계 236

제8장 결론 242

참고문헌 248

ABSTRACT 276

부록 293
74 남북공동성명 전문
남북 사이의 화해와 불가침 및 교류협력에 관한 합의서 전문
615 남북공동선언문 전문
남북관계 발전과 평화번영을 위한 선언 전문(104 남북정상선언)
남북관계 발전에 관한 법률"