본 연구는 탈사회주의 국가들의 체제변화 경로를 체제변화의 속도와 중점적 개혁부문의 측면에서 각각 유형화하였다. 나아가 체제변화의 속도와 중점적 개혁부문을 함께 고려한 유형 조합에 의해 북한체제의 변화경로로서 1) 점진적, 대외개방 중심형 변화경로 2) 점진적, 대내개혁 중심형 변화경로 3) 급진적, 대외개방 중심형 변화경로 4) 급진적, 대내개혁 중심형 변화경로 등의 가능성을 제기하였다. 그러나 본 연구가 체제변화의 초기조건과 제도적 제약을 통하여 살펴본 북한의 체제변화 경로는 1) 점진적, 대외개방 중심형 변화경로가 가장 가능성이 높은 경로로 나타났다. 또 대외개방에 따른 대내개혁이 추진되더라도 사유화보다는 시장화를 우선한 중국형의 체제변화가 북한의 체제변화 경로로서 가시화될 가능성이 높다고 전망된다. 북한은 중국․베트남 유형과 같은 대외개방 중심, 시장화 우선의 점진적 개혁을 추구하는 것이 현실적인 체제변화의 경로일 것이나, 문제는 정치적 갈등과 관료 저항을 억제하며 점진적 개혁을 추진해 나가기 위해서는 적절한 제도적 고안과 이를 운용할 국가능력이 확보되어야 한다는 점이다. 특히 북한은 중국과 같이 느슨한 중앙계획과 어느 정도 지방분권화가 이루어진 조건에서 개혁을 추진할 수 있는 상황이 아니기 때문에, 경제난의 악화로 당과 국가의 권위와 통제가 견고하지 못한 상황이기 때문에, 그리고 군부에 대한 정치적 의존도가 높은 상황이기 때문에 더욱 더 그 중요성이 강조된다. 만일 북한이 적절한 제도적 고안과 점진적 개혁을 통해서 정치 갈등과 관료 저항을 억제하지 못한다면 당조직과 군부로부터 발생하는 급격한 정변과 체제붕괴를 겪을 가능성은 여전히 열려 있다고 할 것이다.

본 연구는 기존 주류경제학의 체제동학모형이 간과한 제도적 제약 요인을 보완하여 체제변화모형을 구성하고 북한의 체제변화 경로를 전망하였다. 특히 본 연구는 북한의 현실적인 체제변화의 경로로서 중국형의 점진적 개혁을 제시하였다. 이것은 사회주의 국가의 개혁 과정과 성패를 결정하는 변수들 가운데 경제구조적 초기조건을 강조하는 선행연구들의 경제결정론적 시각의 문제점을 극복하고 있다. 공업화 수준 등 개혁 초기 경제구조를 중시하는 시각은 경제구조와 개혁 성과 간의 연관성을 중요시함으로써 동구권 개혁유형에 상응하는 급진적 정책의 선택을 제시하였으나 본 연구는 제도 요인을 도입함으로써 점진적 체제변화 경로의 불가피성을 강조하였다. 또 경제구조적 초기조건에 경제규모의 조건을 도입함으로써 베트남식 대외개방 중심의 체제변화가 이루어질 가능성이 높음을 전망하였다. 또한 이러한 본 연구의 시각은 개혁정책 자체를 중시하는 연구의 한계를 보완하였다. 개혁정책을 강조하는 연구들은 경제구조적 초기조건을 강조하는 입장에 비해 권력조직과 정치엘리트의 자율성을 인정한다는 차이는 있으나 한편으로 여전히 정책 선택에 있어서 제도적인 제약조건을 고려하지 않는 한계를 가지고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 기존 연구들의 문제점과 한계를 보완하여 제도적 제약에 의한 점진적인 대외개방 중심, 시장화 우선의 체제변화 경로를 전망하였다.
 

The aim of this study is, from the viewpoint of initial condition and institutional constraint, to analyze and prospect the path of system change in North Korea. For the purpose, I have turned system change model into system change path model with the initial conditions of system (political, economic and ideological system), economic structure and system performance. System initial conditions, especially as institutional factors, are supposed to regulate system change in the reform process. In 1990s the initial condition of system performance can be said to be economic crisis, and in the wake of it, political instability. The weakening of public distribution capacity, which stemmed from the continuous negative growth rate has resulted in system disturbance, including skepticism about the extant system. The initial condition of economic structure was the decline in the working ratio of heavy industry-centered economy, and the stagnation of overseas trade. North Korea was, because its industry in pursuit of a self-sufficient economy lacked exportables and competition power, embarrassed in shortage of foreign exchange for induction of advanced technology. The initial conditions of system was revealed, in the respect of political system, as completion of succeeding 'Suryung system'(monolithic system) and in the respect of economic system, presentation of 'Strong Power State Policy' and 'Revolutionary Economic Policy', which is in fact similar to the existing 'Independent National Economy Policy' with the priority of heavy industry and toward a self-sufficient economy. In the ideological respect 'Our Own Style Socialism' was proclaimed as a practical ideology of 'Juche Thought' as well. North Korea has recently groped for reform policies in order to get over the slowdown in growth rate and the slackness of almost all its industries. One of them was particularly represented as 'Economic Management Improvement Measure(2002. 7. 1)' with the realization of prices and wages and the expansion of rural markets. In spite of the measure, North Korea is on the other hand restoring the centrally planned economic system, consolidating 'Army First Politics', and strengthening indoctrination with 'Juche Thought'. Accordingly North Korea's system change seems to be to a great extant constrained in bureaucratic resistance from the centrally managed economic system, the influence of the army, and the regulation of ideology. Considering the above constraints, it is quite probable that North Korea go through the gradual path of system change resembling Chinese type. Unlike Eastern European radical approach, there is much room for control over bureaucratic resistance and political confrontation in case of Chinese gradualism. Futhermore, China's gradual reform gives time for managing bureaucratic and political constraint by emphasis on marketization instead of privatization and on the role of growth of the nonstate sector in diversifying ownership patterns. In the perspective of economic structure, China's economic reform started with rural agriculture. In China agriculture was a leading sector, whose reform could in turn strongly stimulate reform in the other sectors of the economy. However, as North Korea's economy is rather industrialized, it is hard to expect to obtain the desired results. Therefore, the gradual reform of North Korea is presumed to give priority to the urban and industrial sector. What is more, in terms of economic structure(especially economic size), there is a striking difference between them. With a magnificent economic size China has favorably executed internal reform policies far from external shock. In contrast to China, Vietnam is relatively similar to North Korea in economic size. Because Vietnam and North Korea is short of the economy of scale, for economic recovery and growth they should depend on the induction of foreign capital, including foreign direct investment and official development assistance. In addition, they are alike in the respect of international relations to America, with which political normalization is essential to widening of the economic chasm. Vietnam's external opening, which exerted a direct influence on internal system reform, has brought about the considerable economic results in reform progress. North Korea, which is in a small size economy as well, following the Vietnam example, has much chance of external opening-centered system change. However, in the speed aspect of external opening and internal reform, unlike Vietnam's radical approach North Korean reform measures is supposed to be unfolded piecemeal and gradual, rather than comprehensive and fast. The reason, as above mentioned, is that North Korea is much constrained in bureaucratic resistance from the centrally managed economic system, the influence of the army, and the regulation of ideology. In particular 'Independent National Economy Policy' toward a self-sufficient economy, which is justified with 'Juche Thought' and directed by 'Suryung system' has been continued for a long time. For the reasons, reducing spreading effect of external opening on internal economy to the minimum, North Korea is expected to put external opening policies in practice. Nevertheless, once external opening measures are continuously induced in North Korean economy, even though not as smoothly as in Vietnam, its external opening and internal reform will be expanded with economic performance, In sum, it can be said that North Korea has much prospect for the gradual and external opening-centered path of system change. Moreover, as internal reform is to go on with external opening, it is expected to give priority to marketization and the urban sector. The matter is, successful path of North Korean system change would require that the state has adequate power of control over bureaucratic resistance and political conflict, designs appropriate institutions. Without state capacity and useful institutions, it can be said that the chance of system collapse is open to North Korea.

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