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[2018 통일나눔펀드 지원사업] Unification Blue Book 2019 - Reconceptualizing U.S.-ROK Cooperation in Korean Unification: a Stabilization Framework

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단체(기관)명 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
교육기간 20180702~20190228
키워드 #통일과나눔   #Carnegie Endowment for International Peace   #Chung Min Lee   #reunification   #U.S.-ROK Cooperation
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Purpose and necessity of the project
 The Unification Blue Book 2019 (UBB), the first installment in what is hoped to be a five-year project, proposes a new framework for understanding unification. At present, unification is typically considered in terms of three discrete scenarios: peaceful unification, unification as the result of Kim-regime collapse, or unification through conflict. While these three scenarios make for interesting analysis, they largely deal with unpredictable and uncertain events and futures. They are also often politicized, leaving little space for nonpartisan consensus and planning for key unification contingencies. Additionally, they reveal little about the long-term integration of the two Koreas socially, economically, and politically. Furthermore, while South Korea will unequivocally take the lead on all unification-related issues, it is also impossible for unification to occur in a foreign policy vacuum, and the scenarios-based framework does not adequately address the role foreign actors will play in unification. As such, thefield of unification studies has to take into consideration a non-scenario-based framework through which to assess unification that is (1) more predictable; (2) less politicized; (3) focused on long-term integration and; (4) inclusive of the potential influence foreign actors might play in integration of the Korean Peninsula. The Unification Blue Book 2019 outlines such a framework in terms of stabilization, with special attention to how the United States can cooperate with South Korea to assist in stabilizing the peninsula postunification. Stabilization refers to a whole of government effort—including diplomatic engagement, foreign assistance, and defense—toward supporting locally legitimate authorities and systems. It can occur in peaceful or post-conflict contexts. Stabilization includes actions in five broad clusters: establishing civil security, restoring essential services, establishing rule of law, supporting governance, and supporting development. Regardless of how unification occurs, actions in each of these five clusters would need to be taken to ensure the economic and political shocks unification may cause do not become destabilizing. This project outlines how this framework can be applied to unification, and what stability tasks would present major obstacles in Korea.

Target and impact of the project
 While this study was written to be accessible to anyone with an interest in unification, the target audiences are the U.S. and South Korean governments. In the United States, meetings are currently being set up with the lead organizations for stabilization: the Office of Transition Initiatives at the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Department of State's Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The working draft of the Unification Blue Book received very positive feedback from stabilization practitioners at USAID, as well as from experts the Carnegie Endowment and Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Once the draft is finished, a public launch of the report will be held on May 15th, where experts will discuss the report's findings with the pubic. In Seoul, the UBB will be launched at the Asan Institute for Policy studies, where a round table of experts will be convened to discuss the report. Meetings are also in the process of being set up with the Korea National Institute for Unification (KINU), Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA), Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), and the Sejong Institute. During the trip to Seoul, Dr. Chung Min Lee and Ms. Kathryn Botto will attend the Asan Plenum, where they will discuss the report and its finding with experts from around the world. The goal of this project is to reconceptualize the way that government and thought leaders think about unification. By promoting the UBB in these settings, as well as online through Twitter and Facebook, the report will hopefully gain traction and be used to shape unification policy.
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