급변하는 국제 정세 속에서 얼어붙은 한반도 안보 정세도 중대 전환점을 맞고 있으며 남북한 관계도 최악의 대립 국면에 처해 있다.
이러한 가운데 최근 북한 김정은 위원장은 미국 트럼프 2기 시대에 발맞춰, 대미 전략의 일환으로 북·미간 핵 군축 협상을 노린 ‘핵 무력 강화 노선’ 입장을 재천명하면서 핵 포기 의사가 없음을 분명히 하고 있다.
북한의 이러한 메시지는 향후 대미 협상에서 미국의 대북 정책 변화를 유도하기 위한 것으로 보인다.
하지만 트럼프 2기 행정부가 북핵 보유를 사실상 인정하는 핵 군축협상과 비핵화 협상 사이에서 과연 어떤 카드를 선택할지는 미지수이다. 다만 북한의 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 참전으로 인해 북·미 간에 대립 구도가 형성되면서 미국이 새로운 외교적 해법을 모색할 수 있을 것이다.
물론 이 전쟁이 조기에 종전되지 않으면 파병된 북한군의 피해가 커지면서 결국 김정은 정권의 불안정을 초래할 것이라는 주장도 있다.
거기에 더해 2019년 북·미간 ‘하노이 노딜’ 이후 북한이 핵 개발 강화에 주력하면서 북·러 간 밀착은 더욱 심화되었고, 결국 2024년 군사 동맹국으로 28년 만에 복원되면서 북한군의 러시아 파병이 실제 이루어졌다. 더군다나 북·러 간의 이러한 전략적 군사 동맹은 글로벌 안보뿐 아니라 우리의 안보에도 심각한 위협이 되고 있다.
이처럼 한반도를 둘러싼 국제 정세가 요동치고 있는 가운데 세계 현대사에서 유일한 3대 세습 독재 정권이자 사실상 9번째 핵보유국인 북한과 우리는 마주하고 있는 형국이다.
이러한 북한의 세습 정권사를 단적으로 말하자면, 피로 점철된 잔혹한 숙청의 역사이자 핵 개발의 역사이기도 하다. 특히 북한 정권은 세습 독재체제 유지와 다른 나라들을 압박하는 강력한 대외정책 수단으로 핵무장을 목표로 삼았으며, 모든 국력을 핵 무력 증강에 온통 쏟아부었다. 그 결과 가공할 핵무기의 위력이 실존하는 상황을 만들었고, 이제 그 누구도 피할 수 없는 현실이 되고 말았다. 오늘날 자체 핵무장론이 대두되고 있는 큰 이유이다. 이에 대해 미·중 패권 경쟁 측면에서 한반도의 완충지대가 서로에게 필요하다는 인식이 북한의 핵 무력 증강을 적어도 방관 또는 묵인해준 게 아니냐는 색다른 주장도 있다.

목차

제1부 김일성 정권의 북한
Chapter 1 김일성의 등장과 북한 체제의 성립 / 15
제1절 제2차 세계대전의 종전과 한반도 독립 ··············································· 15
제2절 김일성과 소련군 제88여단 ································································ 18
제3절 조선노동당의 성립 과정과 김일성의 실권 장악 ································· 20
제4절 조선민주주의인민공화국의 수립과 김일성의 정적 제거 ···················· 33
Chapter 2 6⋅25전쟁 그리고 유일 지배 체제의 구축과정과 확립 / 37
제1절 전쟁 기간 중의 전시동원체제의 개편과 인민군대 내 당 기구 개편 ···· 37
제2절 8월 종파사건과 반 김일성 세력들의 반 종파투쟁 ······························ 42
제3절 갑산파 숙청사건과 유일사상체계 확립 ··············································· 48
Chapter 3 통치구조와 통치이데올로기 / 63
제1절 6.25전쟁의 경험과 ‘주체’의식의 필요성 대두 ···································· 63
제2절 대내적 차원의 주체사상의 태동 ························································ 66
제3절 대외적 차원의 주체사상의 태동：북한과 중소 관계의 재설정 ············ 73
제4절 주체사상의 완성 ················································································ 81
Chapter 4 김일성 정권의 통치구조와 통치형태 / 87
제1절 당 중심체제와 중앙인민위원회 주석 체제 ·········································· 87
제2절 통치행태：유일사상체계 ····································································· 91
제3절 중앙통제경제체제 ·············································································· 96
Chapter 5 주체와 자주성에 기반을 둔 비동맹 외교 / 100
제1절 중소 대립과 북한의 대 중소 외교 ···················································· 101
제2절 남북한 외교전 ················································································· 102
제3절 북한의 제3세계 및 UN 외교 ···························································· 106

제2부 김정일 정권의 북한
Chapter 1 김정일 승계체제의 구축 과정과 유일지배체제의 강화 / 117
제1절 후계자 문제의 대두와 북한의 대내외적 정세 ···································· 117
제2절 후계자론의 정립과 후계체제 구축과정：1970-80년대를 중심으로 ··· 124
제3절 당의 유일사상체계 확립 ··································································· 135
제4절 김정일 후계체제 구축을 위한 당⋅군⋅정 개편작업 ························· 140
제5절 심화조 사건과 숙청：1990년대 후반을 중심으로 ······························ 15
Chapter 2 김정일 정권의 통치이데올로기와 통치구조 및 행태 / 167
제1절 대내외적 환경에 따른 주체사상의 진화 ·········································· 167
제2절 김정일 정권의 출범과 강성대국론 ···················································· 169
제3절 선군사상과 선군정치 그리고 주체사상과의 관계 ······························ 176
제4절 당 중심체제의 변질과 국방위원장 중심 지배체제 ····························· 194
Chapter 3 통제경제체제의 한계와 제한적 개혁⋅개방 / 208
제1절 군대를 이용한 경제건설 사업 ·························································· 208
제2절 북한의 경제관리 방식과 경제정책 변화 ············································ 215
제3절 7⋅1경제관리 개선조치의 총론적 평가 ··········································· 223
Chapter 4 북중, 북러관계의 변화, 대 서방 관계의 모색 및 남북한 관계 / 226
제1절 북한 대외정책의 변화 배경 ····························································· 226
제2절 북중, 북러관계 변화 ········································································ 229
제3절 전방위 외교의 추진과 대서방, 대남관계 개선 ·································· 236
Chapter 5 체제 위기와 생존전략 으로서의 핵⋅미사일 개발 / 248
제1절 북한의 총체적 위기의 실태 ····························································· 248
제2절 북한의 핵⋅미사일 개발 과정 ·························································· 253
제3절 북한 핵문제 해결을 위한 6자회담 ·················································· 261

제3부 김정은 정권의 개막과 북한체제의 향방
Chapter 1 김정일 사망과 김정은 3대 세습체제 출범 / 269
제1절 김정은 3대 세습이 가능한 북한의 특수성 ······································ 269
제2절 김정은 후계자의 등장 ······································································ 273
제3절 김정일의 사망과 김정은의 권력승계 완성 ········································ 285
Chapter 2 북한의 권력기구와 권력엘리트 재편과정 / 289
제1절 권력기구 재편 과정 ········································································· 289
제2절 김정은 리더십 구축과 핵심 측근 엘리트의 부상 ······························ 326
제3절 김정은의 인민정치와 체제단속 ························································ 362
Chapter 3 김정은 정권의 체제 내적 생존전략 / 383
제1절 김정은의 경제⋅핵무장건설 병진전략 ·············································· 383
제2절 김정은 정권의 경제개혁 조치 ························································ 388
제3절 인민생활 향상의 노력 ····································································· 398
Chapter 4 김정은 정권의 체제 외적 생존전략 / 402
제1절 김정은 정권의 북한 대외정책 기조 ················································· 402
제2절 북중, 북러 관계 ·············································································· 407
제3절 대서방, 대남관계 ············································································· 419
제4절 북한 핵의 위험성과 우리의 대응 ····················································· 433

제4부 북한체제의 지속성과 변화
Chapter 1 북한체제의 지속성 / 463
제1절 체제특성으로서의 유일지배체제와 통치이데올로기 ·························· 463
제2절 중앙통제경제체제 ············································································ 468
제3절 끊임없는 숙청의 드라마 ·································································· 474
Chapter 2 북한체제의 변화 / 480
제1절 통치이데올로기의 계승 및 변화 ······················································ 480
제2절 경제개혁조치의 시도 ······································································· 483
제3절 권력구조의 변화 ·············································································· 489
제4절 김정은의 권력 기구 ········································································· 494
Chapter 3 김정은 체제의 향방 / 500