Seven years is no short time in the ever-shifting landscape of international politics. Since 2018, the geopolitical realities surrounding the Korean peninsula have undergone significant transformations. Perceptions of key actors and the relationships among states have evolved dramatically. And another variable was added to this complexity with Trump’s return to the White House.
To forecast Trump’s policy toward North Korea in his second term, it is essential to recognize these changes and consider the administration’s shifting policy priorities. Simply predicting a reemergence of the Trump-Kim “bromance” or revisiting the negotiation models of 2018–2019 would fail to account for the new realities.

1. Trump’s Calculations: Immediately after the Inauguration

2. Kim Jong Un’s Calculations: Immediately after Trump’s Inauguration

3. Challenges after Resumed Nuclear Negotiations?

4. Conclusion