In 2025, both North Korea and Iran remain pressing matters of concern for the United States, as they have been for much of these initial two-and-a-half decades of the twenty-first century. However, while Iran continues to be the most pressing case of near-term nuclear proliferation concern, North Korea has emerged as a capable nuclear adversary of the United States. Since the expulsion of the International Atomic Energy Agency from North Korea in 2009, the country’s nuclear fuel cycle capabilities, ballistic missile development efforts, and nuclear weaponization endeavors have all been effectively unconstrained. The U.S. intelligence community has repeatedly assessed in recent years, as it did in March, that Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, “has no intention of negotiating away his strategic weapons programs.”
Iran, meanwhile, submitted to intrusive verification provisions under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) but, in the aftermath of the United States’ violation of that agreement in 2018 under the first Trump administration, undertook a series of deliberate measures to bring itself closer to a nuclear weapon.
Today, the Trump administration, in its second incarnation, seeks to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, prioritizing diplomacy with the specter of possible military action looming in the background.

Ripple Effects: Shifting Geopolitics and Strained Alliances

Domestic U.S. Politics and Credible Commitments

Lessons Learned