2016년 국제정세는 동북아와 글로벌 차원 모두 매우 유동적이고 불확실성이 큰 상황으로 전개될 것으로 예상됩니다. 21세기 안보환경은 안보 행위자의 다양화, 비국가 행위자의 득세, 글로벌 거버넌스의 실패 같은 새로운 현상이 특징입니다. 여기에는 IS 같이 종교에 기반한 폭력적 극단주의, 지역단위 준군사조직의 발호, 국가간 갈등보다 국가사회 내부의 폭력성, 기존 거버넌스 체제의 무기력 등 과거와는 분명히 다른 측면이 존재합니다. 현상적 측면에서 보더라도 극우주의, 분쟁의 복잡화, 실패한 국가, 문명간 갈등,반이슬람 등 어느 한가지 방식의 갈등해결이 이제는 더 이상 가능하지 않은 시대가 된 것입니다.
한편 오늘날 국제질서의 근간을 리드하는 미국의 변화도 중요한 요인입니다. 국제사회의 관리자, ‘디폴트 파워(default power)’로서 미국의 스탠스 변화는 국제질서에 중요한 변수입니다. 중국의 부상과 미국의 상대적 약화로 표현되는 국제체제 내 힘의 배분에서의 변화는 미래의 안보환경을 전망하는 가장 중요한 변수라 할 수 있습니다. 미국의 상대적 쇠퇴, 중국의 부상 지속, 러시아의 복귀, 중동지역의 정세 불안정 지속 등이 힘의 분배 변화에서 비롯되는 현상들입니다.

서 문
I. 국제 정세
국제안보 정세 / 이대우··················································································9
국제경제 정세 / 김기수··················································································15

II. 동북아 정세
미국 정세전망 / 이상현··················································································23
중국 정세전망 / 이태환··················································································29
일본 정세전망 / 김성철··················································································35
러시아 정세전망 / 정은숙··············································································40

III. 한반도 정세
북한 정세와 남북한 관계 전망 / 정성장·······················································49

IV. 2016년 외교·안보·통일 10대 이슈
남중국해 분쟁: 주요 쟁점과 전망 / 이태환··················································57
THAAD 문제 / 홍현익···················································································60
TPP 관련 전망 / 김기수················································································66
통일외교 / 홍현익···························································································68
한일관계 타개방안: 위안부문제를 중심으로 / 이면우···································73
미국 대선 전망 / 이상현················································································77
북한 노동당 제7차 대회 전망 / 정성장························································82
진화하는 국제테러 : ISIL을 중심으로 / 이대우············································86
북한 경제 전망 / 양운철················································································91
북핵문제 해결 / 백학순··················································································95