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2024년 미국 대통령 선거와 북한 비핵화의 미래

THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2024 AND THE FUTURE OF DENUCLEARIZATION

상세내역
저자 시드니 사일러
소속 및 직함 Senior Adviser Center for Strategic and International Studies Korea Chair
발행기관 서울대학교 통일평화연구원
학술지 한-미 정책 브리프 (ROK-US POLICY BRIEF)
권호사항
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 1-9
발행 시기 2024년
키워드 #2024년   #미국   #대통령   #선거   #북한   #비핵화   #미래   #시드니 사일러
원문보기
상세내역
초록
To no one’s surprise, 2024 is turning out to be a unique U.S. election year in which speculation about changes in U.S. foreign policy under each of the two candidates if elected far exceeds actual comments or insights provided by either camp.  Candidate Trump is, not surprisingly, leaving options open and speaking more in terms of where President Biden is allegedly failing, while the Biden team is defending its current policy and avoiding suggestions that fundamental changes are necessary.  Filling the vacuum of substantial policy debate thus far are experts across the political spectrum, and of course the North Korea issue is not exception. 
There is much rumination about possible new policy directions regarding North Korea and its growing nuclear weapons program.  There is universal consensus North Korea’s nuclear capability poses a growing dangerous threat that will challenge the winner of this year’s election for the coming four years. The foundational questions being asked boil down to two: “If reelected, does President Biden have any North Korea Plan B for term two?” and “What would a resumed Trump-Kim Jong Un relationship yield?”
목차
ALL EYES ON WASHINGTON? WHAT ABOUT PYONGYANG?

LESSONS OF THE RECENT PAST

LESSONS LEARNED: EXPECT THE WORST...

...BUT KEEP TRYING

WHAT ABOUT A KIM-TRUMP REDUX?

SO WHAT OPTIONS REMAIN?

PHASED APPROACH AND ARMS CONTROL, LESS LIKELY TO SUCCEED?

PEACE-ENABLED DENUCLEARIZATION OR DENUCLEARIZATION-ENABLED PEACE?

CONCLUSION