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대북 제재의 미래

THE FUTURE OF SANCTIONS AGAINST NORTH KOREA

상세내역
저자 윌리엄 브라운
소속 및 직함 Principal, Northeast Asia Economics and Intelligence Advisory, LLC (NAEIA.com)
발행기관 서울대학교 통일평화연구원
학술지 한-미 정책 브리프 (ROK-US POLICY BRIEF)
권호사항
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 1-6
발행 시기 2024년
키워드 #대북 제재   #미래   #북한   #north korea   #윌리엄 브라운
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상세내역
초록
 Whether Joe Biden, Donald Trump, or another individual is the U.S. president, he or she will face challenging decisions regarding North Korea early next year. We need serious discussions with Putin and Xi or we might as well discard the current UN and bilateral sanctions and start anew. Following such talks, whether successful or not, we must engage in rigorous talks with Pyongyang and  constructive dialogue with Seoul. Diplomacy, which has been absent for the past four years, must be revived. The critical question we need to address before we begin is our specific objectives with North Korea and the associated costs. If denuclearization is our primary goal, we must focus our sanctions solely on this objective, urging China and Russia to collaborate while addressing other issues through bilateral rule-based negotiations. 
The UNSC and bilateral anti-nuclear proliferation sanctions have been largely ineffective in North Korea, despite involving almost the entire world. Some argue they have increased the costs of Pyongyang's nuclear program and possibly slowed its development, but not enough to make a significant difference. So, why continue them? As my late friend, Washington Post reporter Don Oberdorfer, remarked, "Are we not just kicking the can down the road?"
목차
First is Focus

Second, Use Rules Instead of Sanctions to Differentiate Between Good and Bad Behavior