New research regarding the effect of withdrawals of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula argues that there is no systematical effect on stability caused by force reduction by showing that there are no North Korean military provocations after the withdrawal. However, the author of this paper argues that during the period of U.S. forces reduction, it produces relatively more peaceful circumstances because North Korea strategically avoids any instability that may stop the withdrawal, which is not North Korea’s real intention. Based on this strategic avoidance concept, this paper hypothesizes a negative relationship between U.S. force reductions and North Korean military provocations, and actual size of U.S. forces and peaceful behavior of North Korea. The result indicates that the peaceful situation after force reduction can be explained by the concept of strategic avoidance, which means that the temporary peace was not a real expression of North Korea’s intention but disguised behavior with the purpose of having fewer U.S. boots on the ground.

Abstract

I. Background and Research Question

II. The Debate between US Forces Forward Deployed and Regional Stability

III. Research Design
A. Theory and Hypothesis
B. Model and Dependent Variables
C. Independent Variables
D. Control Variables

IV. Outcomes and Analysis

V. Conclusion

References