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학술논문

The Greater Tumen Region Development Programme and Multilateral Policy Rationales: Geopolitical Factors Reconsidered

상세내역
저자 김두진
소속 및 직함 고려대학교
발행기관 한국국방연구원
학술지 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis
권호사항 26(3)
수록페이지 범위 및 쪽수 283-298
발행 시기 2025년
키워드 #Tumen River   #TRADP   #GTI   #Rason (Rajin-Sonbong) Free Economic Trade Zone   #UNDP   #Yanbian   #김두진
조회수 29
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초록
The Tumen River area is considered to be strongly affected by geopolitics, and theGTI programme still has a very long way to go before it can be declared a successstory. This article argues that political factors may have a steadily increasingeffect on the GTI as part of a geoeconomic micro-regionalist framework. Indeed,political rivalries among the participants often appear more salient than regionalones. Moreover, an economic explanation for China’s involvement in theTRADP is to some extent feasible, but not significantly persuasive. Furthermore,North Korea has tended to be increasingly wary of Chinese investment. Due tothe strong South Korean connection with Yanbian, a great concern about risingKorean nationalism has also arisen in the Chinese government. Russia, for its part,may be committed to the project primarily due to its separatist-minded RussianFar East. Japan, however, is not geographically connected by land to the region, butin order to generate positive spill-over effects that include the Japanese economy,the GTI is in need of expanding its geographical coverage to also include the seaarea of the East Sea (of the ROK). In the long term, the TRADP need not adhereto the GTI’s previous formula of multilateralism. According to policy options,bilateral or trilateral frameworks are preferable.
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