[학술논문] Reconstructing North Korea’s plutonium production history with Bayesian inference-based reprocessing waste analysis

...explores the potential utility of a Bayesian inference-based analysis of the isotopic composition of reprocessing waste to reconstruct the operating history of the 5MWe reactor and estimate its plutonium production history. We simulate several scenarios that reflect different assumptions and varying levels of prior knowledge about the reactor. The results show that correct prior assumptions can be...

[학술논문] Research on The Damage Scale Analysis of a Tactical Nuclear Attack by Wind Direction and Speed

...direction and wind speed data collected from 2015 to 2025. The scopeof the research is limited to three nuclear power plants, namely Wolseong, Hanul, and Saeul, among the nationalimportant facilities, which are classified as “A” grade in South Korea. The research is also limited to plutonium 10 ktsizes for tactical nuclear attacks in North Korea. The simulation program is NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein.

[학위논문] 북한 핵 위협수준 분석과 맞춤형 재래식·핵통합(CNI) 억제방안

...general extended deterrence/KMPR, to the highest stage, tactical nuclear relocation and NATO-style nuclear sharing/Kill Chain. North Korea's nuclear capabilities are rapidly evolving. The annual plutonium production capacity is 6～7.4kg and the highly enriched uranium production capacity is 170.4～214kg. The target number of nuclear warheads is 300, and it is estimated that there are currently between...

[학술논문] Planning for the Unthinkable: Countering a North Korean Nuclear Attack and Management of Post-Attack Scenarios

...increase in tensions initiated by North Korea in recent years this is particularly disturbing. A review of North Korea’s nuclear weapons capabilities reveals a two-track agenda consisting of both a plutonium (proven) and a highly enriched uranium (likely) program. Scenarios involving both of these programs show that North Korea—despite rather primitive capabilities—can deliver a nuclear weapon that would...

[학술논문] 북한의 핵 미사일 위협에 대한 일본의 군사 외교적 대응

...extensive non-nuclear military measures in order to cope with the North Korean threat while being less active in using diplomacy. Analysts estimate that North Korea had possessed 33 to 55 kilograms of plutonium enough for 6 to 13 nuclear devices. Two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 proved that North Korea had successfully produced nuclear devices. The only remaining missing link in determining whether North...

[국내] Towards a Successful Third US-North Korea Summit: Finding Convergence between Two Denuclearization Calculations

...sanctions which impede the civilian economy, especially the people’s livelihood, North Korea will completely and permanently dismantle the production facilities of all nuclear materials, including plutonium and uranium, in the Yongbyon complex, through a joint project involving technicians from both North Korea and the US in the presence of US inspectors. Second, North Korea will make a written pledge...

[국내] Big Deal or Small Deal? North Korean Nuclear Weapons and the United States

...Korea and the United States do not see eye-to-eye on this issue: South Korea presumably wants the United States to take the North Korean offer of dismantling its Yongbyon nuclear site, consisting of plutonium processing facilities to produce the fissile material which is necessary to produce nuclear weapons. South Korea is urging the United States to allow partial lifting of the economic sanctions which...

[해외] Manpo Unha Factory Part 1: A Missing Piece in North Korea’s Nuclear Puzzle

...Center. Among the chemicals reportedly supplied to Yongbyon is nitric acid, a crucial component to the chemical reprocessing campaigns conducted at Yongbyon’s Radiochemistry Laboratory for producing Plutonium-239 from spent fuel rods. Nitric acid also plays an essential role in the initial stages of the production of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) from yellowcake, which is used to produce highly enriched...

[해외] Manpo Unha Factory Part 1: A Missing Piece in North Korea’s Nuclear Puzzle

...Center. Among the chemicals reportedly supplied to Yongbyon is nitric acid, a crucial component to the chemical reprocessing campaigns conducted at Yongbyon’s Radiochemistry Laboratory for producing Plutonium-239 from spent fuel rods. Nitric acid also plays an essential role in the initial stages of the production of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) from yellowcake, which is used to produce highly enriched...

[해외] North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Plutonium Production Continues Despite Heavy Rains

...satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from July 5, 2022 indicates that despite heavy rains over the past several weeks, the 5 MWe Reactor continues to produce plutonium for the country’s nuclear weapons program. Moreover, smoke is observed emitting from the Thermal (Steam) Plant at the Radiochemical Laboratory, which may signal early preparations for a forthcoming...