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Subconventional Stability on the Korean Peninsula: Lessons From South Asia

상세내역
게재일자 2023년 10월 24일
기관 38 North
저자 FRANK O'DONNELL
키워드 #FOREIGN AFFAIRS   #MILITARY AFFAIRS   #WMD
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상세내역
주요내용 North Korea’s advancing nuclear threats continue to command significant attention from South Korean and US policymakers and analysts. North Korea has conducted over 100 missile tests since the start of 2022. In addition, the Commander of US Forces Korea testified in April 2023 that a seventh North Korean nuclear test was not a matter of “if” but “when.” Pyongyang also issued a new nuclear forces employment law in September 2022, which not only established a first-use doctrine, but also broadened the conditions triggering nuclear use to “encompass almost all thinkable nuclear, non-nuclear and political crisis situations.” This new policy partly reflects North Korean concerns about the growing sophistication of South Korea’s missile capabilities, as these gradually improve the credibility of Seoul’s pre-emptive conventional counterforce strategy against Pyongyang’s nuclear forces and leadership.