On November 5, 2024, Donald J. Trump was re-elected to serve as the 47th president of the United States of America. Having won all seven key battleground states in the Electoral College as well as the popular vote, President-elect Trump will assume office with an even stronger mandate to govern than he had in 2016. This time he will also be backed by a governing trifecta with Republican control of the 119th Congress in both the House of Representatives and Senate as well as a supermajority on the U.S.
Supreme Court. The next four years will once more be a rollercoaster in American politics. The Republic of Korea (ROK) must seek effective measures to prepare for President-elect Trump’s second term given there will be limited legislative or judicial constraints on his executive authority. In short, President Trump’s foreign and defense policies this time could be unstoppable and unpredictable. What should U.S. allies make of the unprecedented 2024 U.S. elections? How might President Trump deal with friends and foes this time?
This Asan Issue Brief provides an overview of the 2024 U.S. elections and the outlook for U.S. allies, with a focus on the view from Seoul. The Issue Brief proceeds as follows.
First, it reviews the 2024 U.S. election results and looks at how public opinion surveys performed in predicting the final outcome. Second, it introduces key changes in the 119th Congress as they relate to the Korean Peninsula. Third, it canvasses the Trump administration’s expected ROK-U.S. alliance agenda. Finally, it discusses how the Yoon administration can engage the Trump administration in terms of defense costsharing, burden-sharing on shipbuilding, and collective bargaining with other allies.
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