[학술논문] Strategic Costs and Russia’s Shifting Calculus on Nuclear Assistance to North Korea

...post–Cold War period, Russia’s decline reduced these costs, but fears of regional instability and reactive proliferation still discouraged nuclear assistance. Since 2017, two structural changes have altered this calculus. First, North Korea’s achievement of a minimal nuclear deterrent means further assistance would impose few additional costs on Russia’s already limited leverage. Second, Russia’s...

[학술논문] Responding to North Korean Provocations: Limitations of Sanctions

...grown. In general, the application of economic leverage will only be successful if the costs to the target of defying the demands of the sanctioning country or coalition outweigh the costs that the targeted regime perceives it will bear from complying with those demands. Among the factors affecting those costs are the potential economic and political leverage the sanctioner has over the target, the...

[학술논문] 전쟁과 무력행사에 대한 북한의 규범의식과 정책적 시사점에 대한 법경제학적 분석

...war crime. Because North Korea do not have any perception of illegality in armed attack, they might decide to do anther attack if expected benefit is larger than expected cost without considering costs of illegal armed attack(e.g., state responsibility, blame from international society). It implies that North Korea is a kind of rational behavior which maximizes its own interest at the cost of other...

[학술논문] Gathering Storm or Silver Lining Out of the Clouds? The North Korean Nuclear Issue and the Case for Coercive Diplomacy

...limited due to the Iraq War, North Korea’s military capability, and the lack of coordination among the multiple coercers. This paper proposes that while the U.S. and its allies prepare a multi-faceted set of threats and incentives to persuade the North that the costs of the weapons program outweigh its benefits, further provocations would necessitate a decisive application of coercive diplomacy.

[학위논문] 김정은 정권의 핵정책 분석, 2011~2021 -북한 지배연합의 선택과 관계국의 대응을 중심으로

...own security and interests remains valuable for understanding the Korean Peninsula’s security environment and North Korea, theories focusing on leader-elite dynamics, rational actors, and audience costs offered a more suitable framework for analyzing Kim regime’s policy shifts and the failure of North Korea-U.S. negotiations. Despite limitations in available data due to North Korea’s secrecy, a closer...

[국내] 미국 주도 반(反)핵확산 제재의 비용: 과장된 사전적(ex ante) 공포 vs. 실증된 제재 부과의 딜레마

...70 percent of South Koreans support nuclear armament, yet recent survey experiments suggest that this support declines sharply when respondents are exposed to expert opinion regarding the potential costs of economic sanctions. This study contends that such experimental designs incorporate systematic biases by overstating anticipated fears and, consequently, critically reexamines the assumption that...

[국내] 트럼프 2.0시대 강대국 정치의 특징과 한국의 과제

...Korean Peninsula includes the following: First, the cost of managing the U.S.-South Korea alliance is likely to increase. Disagreements between the two countries may arise, necessitating additional costs to resolve them. Second, the relationships among neighboring countries around the Korean Peninsula are likely to change, with concerns that the peninsula may become a forefront of Cold War-like conflicts...

[국내] 해외 원자력 추진 잠수함 도입 사례 및 쟁점 분석과 시사점

...submarines, the seriousness of North Korea’s nuclear threat-including the development of SSBNs-makes it difficult to dismiss the need for such capabilities, despite the associated financial and diplomatic costs. Notably, the Trump administration’s emphasis during its second term on strengthening allied self-defense capabilities and fostering defense industrial cooperation-particularly in the shipbuilding...

[국내] Worth the Squeeze: A Conditions-based Analysis of South Korean Public Support for Nuclear Deterrence

...below majority support. However, the South Korean public is most sensitive to specific and tangible potential costs that have a direct impact on them, including hosting deployment of weapons as well as storage and testing facilities in their locality, whereas abstract and unspecified costs only have a modest impact on commitment. While indigenous nuclear armament appears to enjoy higher levels of support...

[국내] ‘쌀의 정치경제’로 추적해 본 북한의 식량난

...explain severe food insecurity for those who are mostly farmers and rural areas residents. Alongside the structural characteristics of the North Korean food system, Kim Jong Un’s recent intervention into the markets might increase the costs of transactions related to rice and food exchange in the markets, potentially leading to decreased food accessibility and malnutrition for North Korean residents.