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학술자료
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[학술논문] Hedging Opportunities and Crises against Pyongyang’s Hereditary Succession: A Chinese Perspective
Beijing passively supports Kim Jong-il’s succession plan. This support has been structured into its DPRK policy centered on the principles of crisis aversion, even though it realizes the high costs of this policy: huge economic aid to an unpredictable neighbor and the negative regional response. This status quo-based policy symbolizes not only Beijing’s lingering “buffer zone”...
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[학술논문] Political Dynamics of Hereditary Succession in North Korea
This paper analyzes the background, problems and political dynamics related to the hereditary succession currently underway in North Korea. The succession to Kim Jong-un has been prepared amid relatively challenging internal and external conditions. The consolidation of Kim Jong-un’s power should solve three political challenges. The first is to inherit and repackage Kim Jong-il’s power...
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[학술논문] [Special Issue] The DRPK Energy Sector: Current Status and Future Engagement Options
...negotiations with North Korea as part of a “roadmap” to denuclearization and legitimate energy needs if negotiations are not successful and the DPRK either collapses (due to an internal coup, succession crisis, or war) or continues to stagnate. The report concludes by identifying the robust strategies that are important in both engagement and non-engagement (collapse or stagnation) scenarios.
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[학술논문] Kim Jong-un Inherits the Bomb
North Korea’s nuclear program has a long history, which serves as a warning thatthe program is likely to have a long future. The Kim regime’s nuclear weapons program will be used by successor Kim Jong-un and his associates for their own benefit and not for the benefit of the North Korean people, and any negotiations relating to this program are likely to be slowed down by Pyongyang’s
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[학술논문] The North Korean Nuclear Issue and the United Nations
...Korean and U.S. response against the North. Overall, there is a possibility of further military challenges from the North and a more unstable situation on the Korean peninsula, especially during the succession period apparently underway in North Korea. Therefore, resolving the North Korean nuclear issue through the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)could help the resumption of the Six-Party Talks (6PT)...
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