[해외자료] Aircraft Return to Sunchon Airbase?

...Yoon’s state visit to the White Houselast week, the two nations announced the Washington Declaration, which aims to strengthen extended deterrence by establishing a shared decision- making framework and the Nuclear Consultation Group (NCG). The state visit came against the backdrop of increasing tension between the two Koreas for North Korea’s “unilateral” severance...

[학술논문] 베이지안 네트워크 기반 상황인식 및 방책 결정 지원 모델

한반도는 북한의 도발과 위협이라는 불확실성이 존재하는 전장이다. 의사결정자는 전장의 어떠한 불확실한 상황에서도 객관적 데이터와 주관적 판단을 가지고 결정을 내려야만 한다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 불확실성 속에서 의사결정자의 상황 판단과 결정을 지원하기 위해 베이지안 네트워크(Bayesian Network) 모델을 제안한다. 베이지안 네트워크는 어떠한 불확실한 상황도 확률로 정량화할 수 있기 때문에 정보의 부족으로 인한 불확실성을 설명할 수 있으며, 민간분야에서는 상황인지에 널리 사용되고 있다. 특히 모든 것을 통신망으로 연결해서 모니터링, 제어할 수 있는 스마트홈(Smart Home)이 발달하면서 AI가 상황이나 사용자의 취향을 학습하고, 이에 적합한 결과를 제공하는 방향으로 발전하고 있다. 하지만 국내 군사

[현안분석] 장제스의 한국전쟁 참전 시도와 미국과 한국, 중국의 전략적 판단

...Most major UN member states, including the UK, opposed Taiwan’s deployment plan, fearing that it might escalate the war and weaken the cohesion of the UN forces, which also influenced U.S. decision- making. Syngman Rhee, as well, viewed Taiwanese plan with extreme caution, warning that it might drive Japanese force into Korean Peninsula. Taiwan’s insufficient military capacity and lack of...

[현안분석] 전망이론과 김정은 시기 북미관계: 2012~2023

...changes in Kim Jong Un’s nuclear policy and U.S.-DPRK relations. How did Kim recognize the relative risk of each policy option toward the United States? How did the risks affect Kim's decision- making process? Why did Kim’s policy choices change although the initial conditions of the North Korean nuclear crisis and U.S. hostile policy toward North Korea did not change? Every choice of...

[현안분석] IFANS FORECAST 2016

...opportunity of convening the 7th Congress of the Korean Workers’ Party in May or October, the first party congress in 36 years, to restore the party’s formal role as the highest policy decision- making body. The congress is also likely to serve as a momentum for Kim Jong-un to declare internally and externally his own policy direction and strategies to wean himself from the influences of his...

[학위논문] 김정은 시대 북한 핵정책 결정과정 연구

...very similar to the North Korean policy- making environment, which is a prerequisite for the ‘Reasonable actor model’. The flow of the analysis frame was composed of ‘Background, Goa, Behavior, Result, Selection’, and the variable relationship of each item was analyzed. For a detailed analysis of North Korea’s nuclear policy decision process, three periods were analyzed separately...