[해외자료] Public Perceptions About What the US Would Do if North Korea Invaded South Korea

...quarter of Americans believe the US would do nothing, while South Koreans are more confident that the US will at least supply weapons and intelligence to the South. More surprising, more than one in twenty Americans and one in ten Koreans surveyed supported the US using nuclear weapons in this scenario. The results highlight challenges in addressing expectations and raise concerns about public understanding...

[해외자료] North Korea Leaving Maneuvering Room with the US While Preparing for Long-Term Confrontation

...and consistently clear that it will not give up its nuclear weapons and instead, will continue to strengthen its capabilities. This was perhaps most vividly demonstrated by Kim Jong Un’s unprecedented visits to nuclear-material production facilities and the Nuclear Weapons Institute (NWI) in September 2024 and in January 2025. The nuclear signaling aligns with Pyongyang’s

[해외자료] Deterring a Nuclear North Korea: What Does the Theory Tell Us?

Executive Summary Deterrence has long been the centerpiece of security strategy on the Korean Peninsula. Over the past two decades, however, the security situation has undergone a fundamental change—deterrence now must account for a Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) armed with nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles capable of delivering them.

[해외자료] First Look at North Korea’s Uranium Enrichment Capabilities

...kcmsf"North Korean state media reportedthat Kim Jong Un visited uranium enrichment facilities to learn more about the country’s fissile material production process and capabilities. During the visit, Kim was accompanied by Hong Sung Mu, one of the country’s leading nuclear scientists, and the head of the country’s Nuclear Weapons Institute, whose name is unclear.

[해외자료] Manpo Unha Factory Part 1: A Missing Piece in North Korea’s Nuclear Puzzle

...enriched uranium (HEU) at Yongbyon. Aside from supporting the nuclear program, the Manpo Unha Factory has reportedly occupied a significant position in the research and production of liquid rocket fuel and chemical weapons at various times. The importance of the Manpo Unha Factory to North Korea’s nuclear, chemical, and ballistic missile programs is indicated by its ongoing...

[정치/군사] 2025년 북핵 쟁점: 군축·군비 통제 담론 대응 중심으로

...평가한다. 설사 협상이 진행되더라도 미북 양측이 이를 전략적이기보다 정치적 차원에서 접근함으로써 타협의 과정까지 이를 가능성도 높지 않을 것이다. 협상 개시와 타협에 비관적인 이유는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 북한이 원하는 군축은 자신을 핵확산방지조약(Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT) 상 핵보유국으로 인정해달라는 것이고, 미국의 군비통제적 접근은 북한을 NPT 상 핵 비보유국으로 남기겠다는 것이다. 목표가 상이하므로 타협의 여지가 극히 낮다. 둘째, 설사 미북이 군비통제 방식으로 협상하더라도 타협 가능성이 높다고 단언할 수 없는데, 북한의 비핵화 조건이 ‘전세계의 비핵화’이기 때문이다. 이는...

[현안분석] 노동당 8기 4차 전원회의 이후 북한의 대외정책과 정세인식 변화

...a rapid buildup of nuclear capability and developing close relationships with China and Russia. As North Korea withdrew the moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and longrange ballistic missiles, which was a premise of the North Korea-US Singapore Agreement, the country has abandoned its efforts to improve ties with the United States, and returned to the uncompromising nuclear weapon development strategy...

[현안분석] 북한 군사력 강화 정책의 딜레마

...capabilities, ranging from strategic and tactical nuclear weapons to the modernization of conventional weapons, will lead to a resource allocation dilemma. he resource allocation dilemma can be said to be a multi-dilemma of resource allocation between the economy and defense, and between the production of nuclear weapons and conventional weapons. Considering North Korea's strategy, it is important...

[현안분석] 북한의 전술핵무기 개발과 안보적 함의

...cruise missiles,smaller SLBMs, and new-type tactical guided weapons, into tactical nuclear weapons. Pyongyang has claimed that tactical nuclear weapons of North Korea are a countermeasure to deter military threats on and around the Korean Peninsula and prevent wars waged by enemies. By operating the tactical nuclear weapons, Pyongyang seems to respond the reinforcement of the ROK military’s...

[학술논문] 김정은 시기의 북한의 대남 군사도발의 유형과 변화 양상

..., the missile test launch, which has the second highest frequency among provocation types, succeeded in miniaturizing and lightening nuclear weapons, and is currently seeking to diversify and multiply. In addition, the intensity of North Korea's provocation against South Korea has become stronger as Kim Jong-un's status is strengthened. North Korea's military provocations are clearly contrary...

[현안분석] 북한 ‘신냉전’ 구조 활용구상에 대한 평가

...North Korea perceives itself as a strategic state with nuclear weapons and as an equal power with China and Russia. Third, offensive andadventurist tendencies are prominent. Currently, North Korea has announced an aggressive nuclear doctrine and is conducting military exercises that presuppose the use of nuclear weapons. Fourth, North Korea is attempting to move away from U.S.-focused...