[학술논문] 대북 불확실성 확대에 따른 한국 주택시장의 변화

본 연구는 북한의 무력도발과 같은 대북 불확실성의 증가가 한국 주택시장 및 거시경제에 미치는 동태적 파급효과를 분석하였다. 북한의 전략적 위협은 사전 예측의 유무에 따라 예측충격과 일시적 충격으로 구분된다. 예측충격 식별에는 최대예측오차분산법(Maximum forecast error variance method)을 일시적 충격 식별에는 단기제약식(Short-run restriction)을 각각 구조벡터자기회귀모형에 적용하여 관심변수 간 상호경로를 분석한다. 그 결과 두 구조적 충격에 대해 빈번한 대북 위협에 따른 학습효과로 인해 거시경제변수는 환율을 제외하고 통계적으로 유의미한 결과를 나타내지 않았다. 또한 주택가격도 마찬가지로 시차를 달리한 대북 불확실성 충격에 대해 유의미한 충격반응이 나타나지 않았다.

[학술논문] Forecasting the Demand for Primary and Secondary School Teachers in a Unified Korea

This study attempts to predict the demand for primary and secondary school teachers in South and North Korea after unification. The scenario forecasting method was used for the prediction;based on the goal of the number of students per teacher in South Korea. It is anticipated that there will be a large demand for teachers - around 4,000 for elementary school and 4,500 for middle school every year

[현안분석] 북한 8차 당대회의 전략노선 및 대남정책 변화 전망

...회복과 대화 복원을 위한 노력을 지속해야 할 것이다. North Korea announced that it would hold the 8th Congress of the Korean Workers’Party in January next year. This report attempts to forecast the changes in the strategic lineand South Korea policy of North Korea that will appear at the 8th Party Congress. Also,this report suggests what the South Korean government should consider...

[학술논문] Forecasting casino revenue using Google trends data: Political instability on the Korean Peninsulas

Political instability;combined with the constant threat of military action;remains the rule between South and North Korea;threatening South Korea’s burgeoning casino sector. There is still little research examining casino-demand forecasting using Google trends data;denying the academy and industry vital insights. The purpose of this study;therefore;is (a) to use Google Trends to investigate whether

[현안분석] Trump-Kim Bromance 2.0? The Differences between 2018 and 2025

...Perceptions of key actors and the relationships among states have evolveddramatically. And another variable was added to this complexity with Trump’s return tothe White House. To forecast Trump’s policy toward North Korea in his second term, it is essential torecognize these changes and consider the administration’s shifting policy priorities. Simplypredicting...