[해외자료] Deterring a Nuclear North Korea: What Does the Theory Tell Us?

Executive Summary Deterrence has long been the centerpiece of security strategy on the Korean Peninsula. Over the past two decades, however, the security situation has undergone a fundamental change— deterrence now must account for a Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) armed with nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles capable of delivering them.

[해외자료] Aircraft Return to Sunchon Airbase?

...Yoon’s state visit to the White Houselast week, the two nations announced the Washington Declaration, which aims to strengthen extended deterrence by establishing a shared decision-making framework and the Nuclear Consultation Group (NCG). The state visit came against the backdrop of increasing tension between the two Koreas for North Korea’s “unilateral”...

[해외자료] Speaking Loudly and Carrying a Small Stick: South Korea Backtracks Over the Nuclear Rubicon

...Yoon Suk-yeolmade a pronouncementthat no leader in Seoul has ever made before. He stated that South Korea—which benefits from US extended nuclear deterrence—could consider acquiring its own nuclear weapons if “North Korean provocations continued intensifying.” This claim...

[학술논문] 한미 확장억제 태세 평가 및 발전 방향

... 통합하는 방안을 공동 기획하여 ‘한미 핵·재래식 통합(CNI:Conventional- Nuclear Integration)방안’을 마련해야 한다. 그러나 중국과 러시아의 핵능력 증강에 초점을 맞추고 미·중·러 3각 억제(trilateral deterrence)를 구현하려는 미국과, 북한 비핵화에 집중된 한국 간 위협 인식의 차이는 일체형 확장억제 구현에 긴장 요인으로 작용할 가능성이 있다. 앞으로 한미 간 확장억제의 신뢰성을 강화하기 위해서는 한미 CNI에 기반한 작전계획 수준의 확장억제 태세 구축이 시급하다. 이를 위해서는 북·중·러의조율된 위협에 대한 한미 간 공동 대응, 한미연합사·미국 전략사·한국...

[학술논문] Stability-Instability Paradox and the Korean Peninsula: How Nuclear Deterrence Can Lead to Inter-Korean Limited Conflicts

Recent events including rapid nuclear modernization of North Korea and China and increasing fear of nuclear escalation in Ukraine have led to renewed attention to nuclear politics in East Asia. In this context, this paper aims to address one of the most distinguished concepts in nuclear politics and its relevance to East Asia’s security environment: the stability-instability paradox. Specifically...

[학술논문] The Future of the U.S.-South Korean Alliance: Increasingly Off-Peninsula

...smaller tactical nuclear weapons for battlefield use. In September 2022, it announced a new nuclear doctrine which lowered the threshold for its use of nuclear weapons. To address the growing nuclear, missile, and conventional force threat, South Korea, the U.S. and Japan resumed combined military exercises after a four-year hiatus to reverse the degradation in allied deterrence and defense capabilities...

[학술논문] The Growing DPRK Nuclear Threat and the U.S.-ROK Response

...made in advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, examines the shift in DPRK nuclear strategy that these advances have permitted and signaled, addresses key dangers posed by the DPRK’s nuclear and missile programs and the shift in its nuclear strategy, and outlines possible U.S.-ROK responses to the growing North Korean threat, including reinforcing the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent.

[학술논문] Managing the Credibility of U.S. Extended Nuclear Deterrence: A Comparative Study of European NATO Allies and South Korea

...alliance’s nuclear deterrence posture enables higher-level management of the credibility of U.S. extended nuclear deterrence. To that end, European NATO allies with forward-deployed U.S. nuclear weapons have facilitated the broadest possible engagement in NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture through the annual Steadfast Noon nuclear deterrence training exercise and policy consultation on nuclear issues...