[해외자료] Deterring a Nuclear North Korea: What Does the Theory Tell Us?

Executive Summary Deterrence has long been the centerpiece of security strategy on the Korean Peninsula. Over the past two decades, however, the security situation has undergone a fundamental change— deterrence now must account for a Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) armed with nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles capable of delivering them.

[해외자료] Aircraft Return to Sunchon Airbase?

...Yoon’s state visit to the White Houselast week, the two nations announced the Washington Declaration, which aims to strengthen extended deterrence by establishing a shared decision-making framework and the Nuclear Consultation Group (NCG). The state visit came against the backdrop of increasing tension between the two Koreas for North Korea’s “unilateral”...

[해외자료] Speaking Loudly and Carrying a Small Stick: South Korea Backtracks Over the Nuclear Rubicon

...Yoon Suk-yeolmade a pronouncementthat no leader in Seoul has ever made before. He stated that South Korea—which benefits from US extended nuclear deterrence—could consider acquiring its own nuclear weapons if “North Korean provocations continued intensifying.” This claim...

[현안분석] 영국 핵무장 과정 및 전략이 한국 핵무장에 주는 시사점

...effective deterrence strategy, and a nuclear command and control structure to ward off the possibility of a would-be aggressor engaging in a decapitation strike. Given limited resources and the presence of the US-ROK alliance, South Korea may consider many of these elements of the British experience applicable were it to acquire nuclear weapons. In particular, the British approach to deterrence, its command...

[현안분석] 제3차 핵시대의 핵전략: 한국의 국방 패러다임 전환을 위한 시론적 검토

...the distinctive attributes of the Third Nuclear Age. Additionally, six core technologies are identified, including delivery systems, targeting, nuclear command and control, missile defense, space-cyber capabilities, and AI-based decision-making. These characteristics necessitate a reconfiguration of existing nuclear strategic concepts, shifting from deterrence stability to crisis stability, sufficiency...

[현안분석] 북핵 고도화 상황에서 미 확장억제의 이행 가능성 평가

... This paper is written to examine whether the U.S. nuclear extended deterrence would be implemented as promised under the situation that North Korea has developed very advanced nuclear weapons and missiles. For this purpose, it introduces theories and practices of extended deterrence and selects five factors such as the risk of entrapment, the value of South Korea,...

[현안분석] 8차 당대회 이후 북한 핵전략의 변화 가능성: 최소억제에서 공세적 핵전략으로의 전환 여부

...advanced weapons and reaffirmed the policy of strenthening nuclear force, it is assumed that a nuclear strategy of North Korea is likely to shift from minimal deterrence to more aggressive strategies such as assured retaliation or limited deterrence. The fact that North Korea has been continuing producing nuclear materials since its successful nuclear test in 2006, and that its expansion of delivery vehichles...

[학위논문] 김정은 시대 북한의 ‘핵 강압외교’에 관한 연구

...of nuclear coercive diplomacy by period are as follows. First, nuclear coercive diplomacy of the development period of nuclear force was the "rest" of nuclear negotiations with the U.S. and North Korea attempted nuclear negotiations with the U.S. after the February 29 agreement, but failed to meet the changes inbehavior demanded by the U.S. Second, Kim Jong-un attempted nuclear coercive...